商品期货早班车-20250716

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, and it is recommended to go long on gold. For silver, short - term risks should be avoided, but there are still short - selling opportunities in the long run [3]. - For basic metals, the prices of electrolytic aluminum and alumina are expected to fluctuate, zinc and lead prices may face downward pressure, while industrial silicon and lithium carbonate prices may be strong in the short term [4][6]. - In the black industry, the supply - demand of steel, iron ore, and coking coal is relatively balanced, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. - In the agricultural product market, the prices of soybean meal, corn, and sugar may show different trends, and corresponding trading strategies are provided for each [8][9]. - In the energy and chemical industry, most products' supply - demand patterns are expected to become looser in the long term, and short - selling or waiting - and - seeing strategies are recommended [11][12][13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold Market - Market Performance: Tuesday saw precious metal prices fluctuating, with silver relatively strong. US core CPI in June increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and there were various international trade news. Gold and silver inventories in different regions changed [5]. - Trading Strategy: Recommend going long on gold. For silver, avoid short - term risks and close long positions, but there are long - term short - selling opportunities [3]. Basic Metals Aluminum - Market Performance: The closing price of electrolytic aluminum 2508 contract decreased by 1.30% compared to the previous trading day, and the closing price of alumina 2509 contract increased by 0.64% [4]. - Fundamentals: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, while the traditional consumption off - season led to a decline in the weekly aluminum product start - up rate. Alumina plants had stable production [4]. - Trading Strategy: For electrolytic aluminum, it is recommended to wait and see as the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. For alumina, it is recommended to conduct range operations and partially close long positions [4]. Zinc - Market Performance: The closing price of zinc 2507 contract decreased by 0.77% compared to the previous trading day [4]. - Fundamentals: Supply was expected to increase, and demand was weakening [6]. - Trading Strategy: Recommend short - selling on rallies [6]. Lead - Market Performance: The closing price of lead 2507 contract decreased by 0.85% compared to the previous trading day [6]. - Fundamentals: Supply was recovering, and demand was weak [6]. - Trading Strategy: Recommend cautious short - selling [6]. Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: The main 09 contract rose by 90 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [6]. - Fundamentals: Supply increased slightly in Yunnan last week, and social inventory decreased slightly. Demand in different sectors had different performances [6]. - Trading Strategy: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [6]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: The main LC2509 contract rose by 0.21% [6]. - Fundamentals: Supply was expected to increase in July, and demand was expected to improve marginally but difficult to drive inventory reduction [6]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see as the price is expected to rebound in the short term [6]. Polysilicon - Market Performance: The main 09 contract rose by 90 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [6]. - Fundamentals: The market was concerned about supply - side reform, supply increased slightly, and demand in some sectors decreased [6]. - Trading Strategy: Partially close long positions [6]. Black Industry Steel - Market Performance: The main 2510 contract of rebar fluctuated and closed lower [7]. - Fundamentals: Supply - demand was relatively balanced, and inventory pressure was small [7]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see, and try the 10/1 reverse spread of rebar [7]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: The main 2509 contract fluctuated sideways and closed slightly higher [7]. - Fundamentals: Supply - demand was neutral, and inventory accumulation might be slower than the seasonal pattern [7]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see, and layout long positions on the 2605 coil - to - ore ratio [7]. Coking Coal - Market Performance: The main 2509 contract fluctuated weakly and closed lower [7]. - Fundamentals: Supply - demand was relatively loose, and the fundamentals were improving slowly [7]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see [7]. Agricultural Product Market Soybean Meal - Market Performance: Overnight, CBOT soybeans continued to decline [8]. - Fundamentals: Supply was expected to be loose, and demand was variable [8]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term soybeans are weak, and domestic soybean meal follows the international cost side. Pay attention to weather and tariff policies [8][9]. Corn - Market Performance: The 2509 contract fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price rose and fell [9]. - Fundamentals: Supply - demand tightened marginally, but there were factors suppressing the price [9]. - Trading Strategy: The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [9]. Sugar - Market Performance: The 09 contract of Zhengzhou sugar closed at 5810 yuan/ton, up 0.14% [9]. - Fundamentals: The domestic and international markets rebounded jointly, but the price may be weak in the future [9]. - Trading Strategy: Go short in the futures market and sell call options [9]. Cotton - Market Performance: Overnight, US cotton prices rebounded [9]. - Fundamentals: International and domestic cotton production and demand had different situations [9]. - Trading Strategy: Go long on dips and adopt a range - trading strategy [9]. Palm Oil - Market Performance: Malaysian palm oil prices fell, but the short - term focus was moving up [9]. - Fundamentals: Supply decreased marginally, and demand had support [9]. - Trading Strategy: It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and it is recommended to over - allocate in the sector [9]. Eggs - Market Performance: The 2509 contract rose slightly, and the spot price was stable [9]. - Fundamentals: Supply was high, and demand was affected by price and weather [9]. - Trading Strategy: The futures price is expected to fluctuate [9]. Pigs - Market Performance: The 2509 contract fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price fell [9]. - Fundamentals: Consumption weakened seasonally, and supply increased [9]. - Trading Strategy: The futures price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [9]. Apples - Market Performance: The main contract closed at 7862 yuan/ton, up 0.31% [10]. - Fundamentals: The opening price of new - season early - maturing apples rose, but current consumption was light [10]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see [10]. Energy and Chemical Industry LLDPE - Market Performance: The main contract fell slightly, and the import window was closed [11]. - Fundamentals: Supply increased, and demand improved marginally [11]. - Trading Strategy: In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly; in the long term, go short on far - month contracts on rallies [11]. PVC - Market Performance: The 09 contract closed at 4960, down 0.6% [11]. - Fundamentals: Supply was expected to increase, and inventory accumulated [11]. - Trading Strategy: Close short positions and wait and see [11]. PTA - Market Performance: PX and PTA prices had certain relationships [11]. - Fundamentals: PX supply was medium, and PTA supply pressure was large in the long term [11]. - Trading Strategy: Go long on PX, and look for short - term positive spread opportunities for PTA, and short - sell processing fees on rallies in the long term [11]. Glass - Market Performance: The 09 contract closed at 1069, down 1.2% [12]. - Fundamentals: Supply may increase, and inventory decreased [12]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see [12]. PP - Market Performance: The main contract fell slightly, the import window was closed, and the export window was opened [12]. - Fundamentals: Supply increased, and demand was differentiated [12]. - Trading Strategy: In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly; in the long term, go short on far - month contracts on rallies [12]. MEG - Market Performance: The spot price was 4408 yuan/ton, and the basis was 68 yuan/ton [12]. - Fundamentals: Supply was high, and inventory was at a low level [12]. - Trading Strategy: Go short on rallies [12]. Crude Oil - Market Performance: Oil prices fell due to reduced supply - risk expectations [12]. - Fundamentals: Supply was expected to increase, and the market was concerned about inventory [12]. - Trading Strategy: Go short on rallies by paying attention to inventory accumulation [12]. Styrene - Market Performance: The main contract fell slightly, and the import window was closed [12]. - Fundamentals: Supply was expected to increase, and demand improvement was limited [12][13]. - Trading Strategy: In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly; in the long term, go short on far - month contracts on rallies [13]. Soda Ash - Market Performance: The 09 contract closed at 1211, down 1.2% [13]. - Fundamentals: Supply was normal, and inventory accumulated [13]. - Trading Strategy: Go short on rallies [13].