天然与合成橡胶日评：天然橡胶震荡偏强，合成橡胶震荡运行-20250716

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Natural rubber prices may fluctuate upward due to macro - prospects and supply - side reform [2]. - Synthetic rubber prices may fluctuate as domestic tire processing rates rise, providing short - term support for downstream demand, while inventory accumulates slightly [2]. - Attention should be paid to the support and pressure levels of natural rubber (13,500 - 13,700 and 14,700 - 14,900) and butadiene rubber (10,700 - 10,900 and 12,000 - 12,200) [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Futures - On July 15, 2025, the closing price was 14,395, up 35 from the previous day; the trading volume was 369,788 lots, an increase of 79,174 lots; the open interest was 214,794 lots, up 2,879 lots; the registered warrant volume was 187,060, a decrease of 1,590 [2]. - The natural rubber basis was 30 on July 15, 2025, up 165 from the previous day [2]. - The monthly spreads of natural rubber (near - month to consecutive - one, consecutive - one to consecutive - two, consecutive - one to consecutive - three) showed different changes on July 15, 2025, with the near - month to consecutive - one down 265, consecutive - one to consecutive - two up 20, and consecutive - one to consecutive - three up 45 [2]. Synthetic Rubber Futures - On July 15, 2025, the closing price was 11,535, down 90 from the previous day; the trading volume was 101,885 lots, an increase of 26,899 lots; the open interest was 22,739 lots, a decrease of 1,690 lots; the registered warrant volume was 9,400, an increase of 200 [2]. - The synthetic rubber basis was - 101.67 on July 15, 2025, up 40 from the previous day [2]. - The monthly spreads of synthetic rubber (near - month to consecutive - one, consecutive - one to consecutive - two, consecutive - one to consecutive - three) also had different changes on July 15, 2025, with the near - month to consecutive - one down 300, consecutive - one to consecutive - two up 35, and consecutive - one to consecutive - three up 25 [2]. Supply Side - In the coming days, there will be some precipitation in major natural rubber producing areas such as Thailand and Vietnam, less in Indonesia; in domestic producing areas, there will be precipitation in Yunnan and Guangxi, less in Hainan [2]. - As of July 10, 2025, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 62.75%, down 6.21% from the previous week; that of styrene - butadiene rubber was 77.19%, down 0.1% from the previous week [2]. - As of July 15, 2025, the daily after - tax profit of Chinese butyl - styrene rubber emulsion polymerization was 234.51 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; that of SBS solution polymerization was 266.64 yuan/ton, unchanged; that of butadiene rubber solution polymerization was 876.11 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month [2]. Inventory Side - As of July 11, 2025, the total weekly warehouse receipt inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE was 213,590 tons, an increase of 820 tons from the previous week; the weekly social inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 414,900 tons, an increase of 2,100 tons; the bonded area inventory was 92,600 tons, an increase of 200 tons [2]. - As of July 10, 2025, the weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber was 12,763 tons, an increase of 439 tons from the previous week [2]. Cost Side - As of July 15, 2025, the purchase price of natural rubber latex in the Songkhla market in Thailand was 3.8 baht/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the daily purchase price of natural rubber latex in the Hainan market was 1,470 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The short - term contradiction of crude oil is not prominent, and the oil price volatility has returned to a shock. The price of upstream raw material butadiene has increased. As of July 15, 2025, the daily average price of Chinese butadiene (99.5%) was 9,375 yuan/ton, up 12.5 yuan/ton from the previous day; as of July 9, 2025, the weekly port inventory of Chinese butadiene was 23,600 tons, an increase of 1,270 tons from the previous week [2]. Demand Side - As of July 10, 2025, the weekly operating load rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 64.54%, up 0.80% from the previous week; the weekly operating load rate of semi - steel tires in China was 72.55%, up 2.51% from the previous week [2]. - According to the Passenger Car Association, from June 1 - 30, the retail sales of the national automobile market were 2.904 million vehicles, an increase of 217,700 vehicles from the previous month; the sales volume of passenger cars in May was 2.536 million vehicles, an increase of 184,300 vehicles; the sales volume of trucks in June was 316,000 vehicles, an increase of 24,500 vehicles, indicating an increase in tire matching demand [2].