贵金属日评：美6月消费端通胀CPI有所反弹，美联储9/12月降息概率有所下降-20250716

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September/December has decreased due to the US June consumer - end inflation CPI rebound. However, due to the slower - than - expected debt issuance rhythm of the US Treasury, continuous gold purchases by central banks of many countries globally, and persistent geopolitical risks, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions on dips [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Precious Metal Market Data - Shanghai Gold: On July 16, 2025, the closing price was 776.13 yuan/gram, with a change of - 1.33 compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 38,972.00, and the open interest was 224,826.00 [1]. - Shanghai Silver: The closing price was 9,225.00 yuan/kilogram, the trading volume was - 357,880.00, and the open interest was 327,567.00 [1]. - COMEX Gold Futures: The closing price was 3,330.50 dollars/ounce, the trading volume was 177,332.00, and the open interest was - 12,839.00 [1]. - COMEX Silver Futures: The closing price was 37.99 dollars/ounce, the trading volume was 177.00, and the open interest was 132,552.00 [1]. - London Gold Spot: The price was 3,345.10 dollars/ounce, and the SPDR Gold ETF holding was 947.66 tons [1]. - London Silver Spot: The price was 36.25 dollars/ounce, and the US iShare Silver ETF holding was 14,868.74 tons [1]. Macroeconomic Data - US Economy: The US June core CPI rose 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, lower than expected for five consecutive months. The June consumer price index CPI annual rate was 2.7%, in line with expectations but higher than the previous value, reducing the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September/December. The US Treasury plans to increase cash reserves to $50 billion and $85 billion by the end of July and September respectively [1]. - Eurozone Economy: The Eurozone central bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June, with the deposit mechanism rate dropping to 2%. The Eurozone and German (French) June manufacturing PMI was 49.4/49 (47.8), continuing to recover. The Eurozone (German) June consumer price index CPI annual rate was 2% (2%), in line with expectations but higher than the previous value. The market expects the European Central Bank to cut interest rates 1 - 2 times by the end of 2025 [1]. - UK Economy: The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% in May, and continued to reduce 100 billion pounds of government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025. The UK May consumer price index CPI (core CPI) annual rate was 3.4% (3.5%), in line with expectations but lower than the previous value. The June S&P Global/CIPS manufacturing (services) PMI was 47.7 (51.3), higher than expectations and the previous value. Due to the June GDP monthly rate being - 0.1%, lower than expectations but higher than the previous value, the expectation of the Bank of England cutting interest rates in August has increased, and it may cut interest rates 2 - 3 times by the end of 2025 [1]. - Japanese Economy: The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January, with the benchmark interest rate rising to 0.5%. It may start to reduce the quarterly government bond purchase scale from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen in April 2026. The Japanese (Tokyo) May (June) consumer price index core (CPI) annual rate was 3.7% (3.1%), higher (lower) than expectations and the previous value. There is still an expectation of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates by the end of 2025 [1]. 4. Trading Strategy Investors are advised to mainly lay out long positions on dips. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,150 - 3,250 and the resistance level around 3,500 - 3,700; for Shanghai gold, the support level is around 730 - 760 and the resistance level is around 800 - 850; for London silver, the support level is around 35 - 37 and the resistance level is around 40 - 43; for Shanghai silver, the support level is around 8,600 - 9,000 and the resistance level is around 9,500 - 10,000 [1].