软商品日报：空头回补天气不利，棉花震荡偏强-20250716

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Sugar: Oscillation [1] - Cotton: Oscillation [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Sugar is affected by consecutive droughts from autumn to spring in Guangxi, leading to unfavorable emergence and early growth of sugarcane, with shorter and fewer sugarcane plants compared to the same period last year. Beet growth is generally good, but there has been excessive rainfall in the Inner Mongolia sugar beet production area recently, making it prone to pests and diseases. Internationally, it is necessary to continue monitoring the sugar production progress in Brazil and the growth of sugar crops in the Northern Hemisphere [1]. - Most cotton - growing areas in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, with the growth progress 4 to 7 days ahead of previous years. In July, Xinjiang is expected to have persistently high temperatures and more high - temperature days than usual, posing a high risk of heat damage to cotton. Currently, the total cotton inventory is decreasing, but the downstream market shows obvious off - season characteristics, and textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. It is necessary to continuously monitor the impact of weather changes and tariff uncertainties [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Overview 3.1.1 Outer - Market Quotes - The price of US sugar increased from $16.31 on July 14, 2025, to $16.56 on July 15, 2025, with a growth rate of 1.53% [3]. - The price of US cotton rose from $68.11 on July 14, 2025, to $68.57 on July 15, 2025, with a growth rate of 0.68% [3]. 3.1.2 Spot Prices - The spot price of sugar in Nanning remained at 6060.0 from July 14 to July 15, 2025, with a growth rate of 0.00% [3]. - The spot price of sugar in Kunming stayed at 5905.0 from July 14 to July 15, 2025, with a growth rate of 0.00% [3]. - The cotton index 328 decreased from 3281 on July 14, 2025, to 3280 on July 15, 2025, with a decline rate of 0.05% [3]. - The spot price of cotton in Xinjiang increased from 15250.0 on July 14, 2025, to 15300.0 on July 15, 2025, with a growth rate of 0.33% [3]. 3.1.3 Spread Overview - The SR01 - 05 spread decreased from 57.0 on July 14, 2025, to 50.0 on July 15, 2025, with a decline rate of 12.28% [3]. - The SR05 - 09 spread increased from - 235.0 on July 14, 2025, to - 217.0 on July 15, 2025, with a decline rate of - 7.66% [3]. - The SR09 - 01 spread decreased from 178.0 on July 14, 2025, to 167.0 on July 15, 2025, with a decline rate of 6.18% [3]. - The CF01 - 05 spread increased from 25.0 on July 14, 2025, to 35.0 on July 15, 2025, with a growth rate of 40.00% [3]. - The CF05 - 09 spread increased from - 85.0 on July 14, 2025, to - 65.0 on July 15, 2025, with a decline rate of - 23.53% [3]. - The CF09 - 01 spread decreased from 60.0 on July 14, 2025, to 30.0 on July 15, 2025, with a decline rate of 50.00% [3]. - The sugar 01 basis increased from 266.0 on July 14, 2025, to 270.0 on July 15, 2025, with a growth rate of 1.50% [3]. - The sugar 05 basis decreased from 323.0 on July 14, 2025, to 320.0 on July 15, 2025, with a decline rate of - 0.93% [3]. - The sugar 09 basis increased from 88.0 on July 14, 2025, to 103.0 on July 15, 2025, with a growth rate of 17.05% [3]. - The cotton 01 basis increased from 1480.0 on July 14, 2025, to 1482.0 on July 15, 2025, with a growth rate of 0.14% [3]. - The cotton 05 basis increased from 1505.0 on July 14, 2025, to 1517.0 on July 15, 2025, with a growth rate of 0.80% [3]. - The cotton 09 basis increased from 1420.0 on July 14, 2025, to 1452.0 on July 15, 2025, with a growth rate of 2.25% [3]. 3.1.4 Import Prices - The import price of cotton cotlookA remained at 78.05 from July 14 to July 15, 2025, with a growth rate of 0.00% [3]. 3.1.5 Profit Margins - The sugar import profit remained at 1656.5 from July 14 to July 15, 2025, with a growth rate of 0.00% [3]. 3.1.6 Options - The implied volatility of SR509C5800 is 0.075, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying SR509 is 7.53 [3]. - The implied volatility of SR509P5800 is 0.0743 [3]. - The implied volatility of CF509C13800 is 0.0932, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying CF509 is 8.31 [3]. - The implied volatility of CF509P13800 is 0.0994 [3]. 3.1.7 Warehouse Receipts - The number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 22716.0 on July 14, 2025, to 22602.0 on July 15, 2025, with a decline rate of 0.50% [3]. - The number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 9807.0 on July 14, 2025, to 9716.0 on July 15, 2025, with a decline rate of 0.93% [3]. 3.2 Company Information - Report research is carried out by CINDA Futures Co., Ltd, a limited - liability company specializing in domestic futures business. It is wholly - owned by CINDA Securities Co., Ltd, with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It is one of the large - scale, standardized, and high - reputation futures companies in China [9]. - The company is a full - settlement member of the China Financial Futures Exchange, a full - fledged member of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange, a member of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange and Guangzhou Futures Exchange, an observer of the China Securities Association, and an observer member of the Asset Management Association of China [9]