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尿素早评：供应仍有压力，转机在于出口-20250716
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-07-16 02:22

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The supply pressure of urea remains high, with daily production close to 200,000 tons at a high level. Although enterprise inventories are slightly decreasing due to increased port collection, upstream enterprise inventories are still around 800,000 tons. The top - dressing demand in July will support prices, but if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is not supplemented, urea prices will face significant downward pressure. The subsequent turnaround still lies in exports. (View score: 0) [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Urea Futures Prices: On July 15, UR01 closed at 1,707 yuan/ton (-1.39% compared to July 14), UR05 at 1,723 yuan/ton (-0.86%), UR09 at 1,731 yuan/ton (-1.87%), and Shandong at 1,810 yuan/ton (-0.55%). [1] - Domestic Spot Prices: On July 15, prices in Shanxi were 1,680 yuan/ton (-2.33%), Henan 1,830 yuan/ton (-0.54%), Hebei 1,780 yuan/ton (-0.56%), Northeast 1,810 yuan/ton (-3.72%), and Jiangsu 1,820 yuan/ton (-1.09%). [1] 3.2 Basis and Spread - Basis: Shandong spot - UR basis was 87 yuan/ton on July 15, an increase of 5 yuan/ton compared to July 14. [1] - Spread: The 01 - 05 spread was -16 yuan/ton on July 15, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton compared to July 14. [1] 3.3 Upstream and Downstream Costs and Prices - Upstream Cost: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1,000 yuan/ton and 820 yuan/ton respectively. [1] - Downstream Prices: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong increased by 20 yuan/ton (0.68%) to 2,950 yuan/ton, and in Henan increased by 30 yuan/ton (1.19%) to 2,550 yuan/ton. The prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5,000 yuan/ton and 5,200 yuan/ton respectively. [1] 3.4 Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2509 was 1,757 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1,757 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,725 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1,731 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1,738 yuan/ton, and the position was 201,365 lots. [1]