Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The macroeconomic recovery momentum remains to be strengthened, and it is recommended to be cautious about the Treasury bond market [6][7] - Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, it is still optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and suggests going long on stock index futures [10][11] - It is expected that the long - term bull market trend of precious metals will continue, and it is advisable to go long on gold futures [13][14] - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, wait for short - selling opportunities after the rebound [15] - For iron ore, pay attention to low - level buying opportunities and take profits in time [18] - For coking coal and coke, wait for suitable mid - term short - selling entry points [20] - For ferroalloys, consider low - level out - of - the - money call options if spot losses continue to widen [24] - For crude oil, pay attention to short - selling opportunities [27] - For fuel oil, pay attention to short - selling opportunities [29] - For synthetic rubber, wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [30][31] - For natural rubber, it is expected to be strongly volatile, and pay attention to mid - term long - buying opportunities [31][32] - For PVC, it may enter a bottom - grinding stage [33][34] - For urea, it is expected to be short - term volatile and bullish in the medium term [35][36] - For PX, it is in a short - term volatile adjustment, and participate cautiously [37] - For PTA, it may be under short - term volatile pressure, and participate in the range [38][39] - For ethylene glycol, participate in the range mainly and pay attention to port inventory and imports [40] - For short - fiber, it may follow the cost and fluctuate, and be cautious about the repair of processing margins [41][42] - For bottle chips, it is expected to follow the cost and fluctuate, and participate cautiously [43] - For soda ash, it is expected to be in a low - level volatile state in the short term [44] - For glass, it is expected to rebound in the short term [46] - For caustic soda, the alumina price is expected to be strongly volatile, and the overall support for caustic soda is limited [48][49] - For pulp, the pulp price is expected to fluctuate and sort out [50][51] - For lithium carbonate, do not chase the high price [53] - For copper, go long on the main contract in the short term [55][56] - For tin, the tin price is expected to be strongly volatile [57] - For nickel, the nickel price is expected to fluctuate [59] - For soybean oil and soybean meal, pay attention to long - buying opportunities for soybean meal after adjustment, and consider call options for soybean oil after the decline [60][61] - For palm oil, consider widening the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [64] - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider long - buying opportunities for the oil - meal ratio [66] - For cotton, it is recommended to short at high prices [69][70] - For sugar, it is recommended to wait and see [72] - For apples, pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [74][75] - For live pigs, consider short - selling at high prices [77][78] - For eggs, consider a 9 - 10 reverse spread [81] - For corn and starch, it is advisable to wait and see for corn, and starch follows the corn market [83][84] - For logs, it is expected to fluctuate and adjust before the first delivery [87] Summary by Directory Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed up across the board, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rising by 0.47%, 0.18%, 0.13%, and 0.04% respectively [5] - The central bank carried out 342.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 173.5 billion yuan on the same day [5] - The current macro - data is stable, but the economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the Treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level [6] Stock Index - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends, with the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM falling by 0.24%, 0.64%, 0.12%, and 0.55% respectively [8][9] - The Central Urban Work Conference was held, and seven key tasks for urban work were deployed [9] - In the first half of the year, real estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year, and the real estate development climate index was 93.60 in June [9] Precious Metals - The previous trading day, the main contract of gold closed at 780.4, down 0.13%, and silver closed at 9,225, up 0.20% [12] - The US CPI in June increased year - on - year, and the core CPI was lower than expected [12][13] - The current global trade and financial environment is complex, and the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue [13] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures declined slightly [15] - The early meeting triggered the expectation of supply contraction, but the real estate downturn and over - capacity still suppress the price [15] - The market is in the off - season, and the price rebound space is limited [15] Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated and sorted out [17] - Policy expectations boosted the price, but the supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally [17][18] - The price valuation is relatively high, and it may fluctuate and sort out later [18] Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated and sorted out [20] - The early meeting triggered the expectation of supply contraction, but the actual supply may increase [20] - The steel mill's iron - making output is falling, and the coke cost support is effective [20] Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, the main contracts of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron rose by 0.35% and 0.33% respectively [22] - The manganese ore shipment volume decreased, and the iron alloy production increased at a low level [23][24] - The short - term demand has peaked, and the supply is still excessive [24] Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil declined significantly due to potential US sanctions on Russia [25] - Fund managers reduced their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options, and the number of US oil and gas rigs decreased [25] - The summer oil demand provides support, but tariffs and sanctions still restrict the price [26] Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil declined significantly, hitting a new low [28] - The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market supply is sufficient, and the ARA region's inventory increased [28] - Trade frictions are negative for the fuel oil price [28] Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber fell by 0.43%, and the raw material price decreased, with the profit turning positive [30] - The supply is relatively loose in the short term, and the demand is difficult to increase [30] - Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [30][31] Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber rose by 0.63% and 0.73% respectively [31] - The supply may increase, the demand is mixed, and the inventory is slightly reduced [31] - It is expected to be strongly volatile in the next week [31] PVC - The previous trading day, the main contract of PVC fell by 0.20%, and the supply - demand imbalance continues [33] - The production decreased slightly last week, and the demand in the off - season is weak [33] - It may enter a bottom - grinding stage [33][34] Urea - The previous trading day, the main contract of urea fell by 1.70%, and the supply is expected to be high in the next period [35] - The demand is limited, and the inventory is higher than expected [35] - It is expected to be short - term volatile and bullish in the medium term [35][36] PX - The previous trading day, the main contract of PX2509 fell by 0.89%, and the PXN and PX - MX spreads adjusted [37] - The PX load increased slightly, and some enterprises carried out maintenance [37] - The short - term supply - demand is tight, but the cost support is insufficient [37] PTA - The previous trading day, the main contract of PTA2509 fell by 0.63%, and the supply increased [38] - The polyester industry plans to cut production, and the demand weakened [38][39] - It may be under short - term volatile pressure [38][39] Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, the main contract of ethylene glycol fell by 0.21%, and the overall start - up load increased [40] - Some devices were shut down for maintenance, and the inventory decreased [40] - The short - term supply - demand weakened, and the inventory is at a low level [40] Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, the main contract of short - fiber 2509 fell by 0.69%, and the device load decreased [41] - The demand is weak, and the cost drive is insufficient [41] - It may follow the cost and fluctuate [41][42] Bottle Chips - The previous trading day, the main contract of bottle chips 2509 fell by 0.54%, and the raw material price fluctuated [43] - The device maintenance increased, and the demand from downstream soft drinks and exports is good [43] - It is expected to follow the cost and fluctuate [43] Soda Ash - The previous trading day, the main contract of soda ash 2509 closed at 1214 yuan/ton, down 0.65% [44] - The production was flat last week, and the inventory increased by 2.98% [44] - The short - term market is expected to be low - level volatile [44] Glass - The previous trading day, the main contract of glass 2509 closed at 1071 yuan/ton, down 1.47% [46] - The number of production lines remained low, and the market price center moved up [46] - It is expected to rebound in the short term due to cost support [46] Caustic Soda - The previous trading day, the main contract of caustic soda 2509 closed at 2512 yuan/ton, down 0.59% [47] - The production increased slightly last week, and the inventory decreased [47] - The alumina price is expected to be strongly volatile, and the support for caustic soda is limited [48][49] Pulp - The previous trading day, the main contract of pulp 2509 closed at 5262 yuan/ton, up 0.57% [50] - The supply has an expansion tendency, and the downstream demand is weak [50][51] - The pulp price is expected to fluctuate and sort out [50][51] Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, the main contract of lithium carbonate rose by 0.21% to 66,660 yuan/ton [53] - The supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, and the inventory is still high [53] - Do not chase the high price [53] Copper - The previous trading day, Shanghai copper rebounded after reaching the bottom, and the spot price decreased [54][55] - The US tariff on copper will be implemented on August 1, which may cause the price to fall and then rebound [55] - Go long on the main contract in the short term [55][56] Tin - The previous trading day, Shanghai tin fluctuated, and the mine supply is tight [57] - The downstream production is good, and the inventory is decreasing [57] - The tin price is expected to be strongly volatile [57] Nickel - The previous trading day, Shanghai nickel rose by 1.34% to 121,060 yuan/ton [58] - The solid - state battery concept boosts the demand expectation, but the actual consumption is not optimistic [58][59] - The nickel price is expected to fluctuate [59] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day, the main contracts of soybean meal and soybean oil rose by 0.03% and 0.30% respectively [60] - The US soybean growing conditions are good, and the domestic oil factory inventory is increasing [60] - Pay attention to long - buying opportunities for soybean meal after adjustment [60][61] Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil fell nearly 2% due to profit - taking and weak export data [62] - The domestic palm oil inventory is at a medium - high level in the past 7 years [63] - Consider widening the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [64] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed rose, and the domestic import of rapeseed oil and meal decreased in May [65] - The domestic rapeseed and related product inventories are at different levels [65] - Consider long - buying opportunities for the oil - meal ratio [66] Cotton - The previous trading day, domestic Zheng cotton fluctuated, and the US cotton production and inventory are expected to increase [67][68] - The domestic cotton planting area and output are expected to increase [68] - It is recommended to short at high prices [69][70] Sugar - The previous trading day, domestic Zheng sugar fluctuated, and the Brazilian sugar production is expected to decrease [71][72] - The Indian sugar inventory and production are at certain levels [72] - It is recommended to wait and see [72] Apples - The previous trading day, domestic apple futures rose slightly, and the production is expected to increase slightly [74] - The inventory is decreasing, and the price is stable [74] - Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [74][75] Live Pigs - The previous day, the national average price of live pigs was 14.54 yuan/kg, down 0.07 [77] - The supply and demand situation varies in different regions, and the price is expected to be stable and weak [77] - Consider short - selling at high prices [77][78] Eggs - The previous trading day, the average price of eggs in the main production areas rose to 2.78 yuan/jin, and the cost decreased [79] - The egg - laying hen inventory is increasing, and the supply is expected to increase in July [80] - Consider a 9 - 10 reverse spread [81] Corn and Starch - The previous trading day, the main contract of corn rose by 0.09% to 2295 yuan/ton, and starch fell by 0.19% to 2641 yuan/ton [82] - The port inventory decreased, and the supply - demand is approaching balance [83] - It is advisable to wait and see for corn, and starch follows the corn market [83][84] Logs - The previous trading day, the main contract of logs 2509 closed at 790.0 yuan/ton, up 0.38% [85] - The import freight may decline, and the inventory is basically stable [86] - It is expected to fluctuate and adjust before the first delivery [87]
西南期货早间评论-20250716
Xi Nan Qi Huo·2025-07-16 02:24