铅锌日评：沪铅区间整理，沪锌区间偏弱-20250716

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the lead market, with supply and demand both weak and no obvious contradictions, tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices. It is expected that lead prices will move in a range in the short term [1]. - For the zinc market, although there is strong bullish sentiment in the market, the supply of zinc ore and ingots is increasing while demand is in the off - season, and inventory accumulation is emerging. Fundamentals are weak, and it is expected that zinc prices will be weak in a range in the short term, and short - selling on rallies can be considered [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Market Data - Lead: On July 16, 2025, the SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,850 yuan/ton, down 0.15%; the futures主力合约收盘价 was 16,930 yuan/ton, down 0.91%; the LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic disk) was 2,005 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.44, down 0.91% [1]. - Zinc: On July 16, 2025, the SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,080 yuan/ton, down 0.14%; the futures主力合约收盘价 was 22,085 yuan/ton, down 0.74%; the LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic disk) was 2,732.5 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 8.08, down 0.74% [1]. 3.2 Inventory and Position - Lead: LME lead inventory was 271,075 tons; Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 58,768 tons, up 6.60%; the futures active contract trading volume was 33,602 hands, up 6.48%; the futures active contract open interest was 52,667 hands, up 0.43%; the trading - to - open - interest ratio was 0.64, up 6.03% [1]. - Zinc: LME zinc inventory was 118,600 tons; Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 11,184 tons, up 21.95%; the futures active contract trading volume was 119,038 hands, down 12.56%; the futures active contract open interest was 84,304 hands, down 10.48%; the trading - to - open - interest ratio was 1.41, down 2.32% [1]. 3.3 Industry News - A zinc smelter in Central China plans to conduct a 15 - day regular maintenance in August, expected to affect about 1,500 tons of production, and plans to add 20,000 tons of new capacity in the fourth quarter of this year or early next year [1]. - On July 14, the LME0 - 3 lead was at a discount of 32.78 dollars/ton, with an open interest of 144,891 hands, a decrease of 1,790 hands; the LME0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of 5.61 dollars/ton, with an open interest of 194,167 hands, an increase of 1,614 hands [1]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - Lead: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. A primary lead smelter had equipment - related maintenance last week, leading to a slight decline in production. For secondary lead, the price of waste lead - acid batteries is likely to rise, and raw materials are in short supply. Refineries are facing cost issues and reduced production. Demand is shifting from the off - season to the peak season, and downstream purchasing is expected to improve [1]. - Zinc: Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. The impact of raw material shortages on production is weakening, and production is expected to increase. Although downstream purchasing increased slightly when zinc prices fell, overall demand remains weak [1].