国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20250716

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to oscillate upwards, while silver is predicted to break through and rise [2][6]. - Copper prices are supported by the firm domestic spot market [2][10]. - Zinc is under pressure and expected to operate under stress [2][13]. - The downside for lead prices may be relatively limited [2][16]. - Tin prices are weakening [2][19]. - Aluminum is under pressure during the off - season, alumina will fluctuate within a range, and the operating rate of cast aluminum alloy is declining [2][23]. - The support from the nickel ore end has loosened, and global refined nickel is marginally accumulating inventory. Stainless steel prices will oscillate due to the game between reality and macro factors [2][26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - Fundamental Data: For gold, the closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2510, Gold T + D, and Comex Gold 2510 all declined, with daily and night - session fluctuations. For silver, the closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2510 and Silver T + D showed different trends, with some increases and some decreases. Trading volumes, positions, ETF holdings, and inventories also had corresponding changes [5]. - Macro and Industry News: The US June core CPI data did not change the Fed's decision. The US Treasury Secretary said there was no need to worry about the deadline for suspending the imposition of some tariffs between the US and China, and the negotiation situation was good [5][7][9]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of gold and silver is 1, indicating a relatively neutral - to - positive outlook [8]. 3.2 Copper - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract declined slightly, while the London Copper 3M electronic disk rose slightly. Trading volumes, positions, inventories, and various spot - related price differences all changed [10]. - Macro and Industry News: The US June core CPI data did not change the Fed's decision. There were also news about trade tariffs and copper trade activities [10][12]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of copper is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [12]. 3.3 Zinc - Fundamental Data: The closing prices of the Shanghai Zinc main contract and the London Zinc 3M electronic disk both declined. Trading volumes, positions, and various price - related data had corresponding changes [13]. - News: The US June core CPI data did not change the Fed's decision [14]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of zinc is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [14]. 3.4 Lead - Fundamental Data: The closing prices of the Shanghai Lead main contract and the London Lead 3M electronic disk both declined. Trading volumes, positions, and various price - related data had corresponding changes [16]. - News: The US June core CPI data did not change the Fed's decision [17]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of lead is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [17]. 3.5 Tin - Fundamental Data: The closing prices of the Shanghai Tin main contract and the London Tin 3M electronic disk both declined. Trading volumes, positions, inventories, and various price - related data had corresponding changes [20]. - Macro and Industry News: Similar to other metals, there were news about the US CPI and trade - related events [21]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of tin is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [22]. 3.6 Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Fundamental Data: The closing prices, trading volumes, positions, and various price - related data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy all had different degrees of change. There were also data on inventories, production costs, and corporate profits [23]. - Comprehensive News: The US June core CPI data did not change the Fed's decision. There was also news about the US - China tariff negotiation situation [25]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [25]. 3.7 Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: The closing prices, trading volumes, and various price - related data of nickel and stainless steel futures had corresponding changes. There were also data on the industrial chain, such as the prices of high - nickel pig iron and the profit margins of nickel plate imports [26]. - Macro and Industry News: There were news about the potential suspension of nickel exports from Canada to the US, the production status of nickel - related projects in Indonesia, and the environmental issues in the Indonesian nickel - mining area [26][27][29]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [31].