国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20250716

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. Core Views of the Report The report provides trend forecasts and fundamental data for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. Each commodity has its own unique market situation and influencing factors, and the report gives corresponding trend judgments and strength indicators for each commodity. Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - Gold: Expected to oscillate upward with a trend strength of 1 [2][10] - Silver: Expected to break through and move upward with a trend strength of 1 [2][10] Base Metals - Copper: Domestic spot prices are firm, supporting the price, with a trend strength of 0 [2][14] - Zinc: Under pressure, with a trend strength of -1 [2][16] - Lead: The downside may be relatively limited, with a trend strength of 0 [2][19] - Tin: Prices are weakening, with a trend strength of -1 [2][24] - Aluminum: Under pressure in the off - season; Alumina is expected to oscillate within a range; The operating rate of cast aluminum alloy is declining. Trend strengths for aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are all 0 [2][27] - Nickel: The support at the ore end is loosening, and global refined nickel is accumulating marginally. Trend strength is 0 [2][33] - Stainless Steel: There is a game between reality and macro factors, and steel prices are oscillating. Trend strength is 0 [2][33] Energy and Chemicals - Carbonate Lithium: Supply - side news is causing disruptions, and high volatility may continue. Trend strength is 1 [2][36] - Industrial Silicon: Warehouse receipts are starting to accumulate, and attention should be paid to the upside space. Trend strength is 0 [2][39] - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to spot trading. Trend strength is 0 [2][39] - Iron Ore: Supported by macro expectations, it is expected to oscillate strongly. Trend strength is 1 [2][40] - Rebar: Expected to oscillate widely. Trend strength is 0 [2][46] - Hot - Rolled Coil: Expected to oscillate widely. Trend strength is 0 [2][46] - Silicon Ferrosilicon: Expected to oscillate widely. Trend strength is 0 [2][50] - Manganese Silicide: Expected to oscillate widely. Trend strength is 0 [2][50] - Coke: Expected to oscillate widely. Trend strength is 0 [2][54] - Coking Coal: Expected to oscillate widely. Trend strength is 0 [2][54] - Steam Coal: Daily consumption is recovering, and it is expected to stabilize with oscillations. Trend strength is 0 [2][57] - Para - Xylene: There is a negative demand feedback, and the unilateral trend is weak. [2] - PTA: In the off - season of demand, the unilateral trend is weak. [2] - MEG: With low inventory, positive spreads can be taken when the monthly spread is low. [2] - Rubber: Expected to oscillate. [2] - Synthetic Rubber: Slightly回调. [2] - Asphalt: Expected to oscillate within a range. [2] - LLDPE: Expected to oscillate weakly. [2] - PP: Spot prices are loosening, and trading is light. [2] - Caustic Soda: Costs are declining, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. [2] - Pulp: Expected to oscillate. [2] - Glass: The price of the original sheet is stable. [2] - Methanol: Expected to oscillate in the short term. [2] - Urea: Spot trading continues to be weak, and it is under pressure with oscillations. [2] - Styrene: Spot liquidity is being released, and it is expected to oscillate weakly. [2] - Soda Ash: There are few changes in the spot market. [5] - LPG: Expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. [5] - PVC: Expected to oscillate weakly. [5] - Fuel Oil: It fell sharply during the day session, and it may temporarily stabilize in the short term. [5] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The weakness continues, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market oscillates at a high level. [5] - Container Shipping Index (European Line): Hold 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 reverse spreads lightly. [5] - Short - Fiber: Expected to be in a short - term oscillating market. [5] - Bottle Chip: Expected to oscillate in the short term, go long PR and short PF. [5] - Offset Printing Paper: Expected to oscillate. [5] - Pure Benzene: Expected to oscillate weakly. [5] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: There are doubts about the复产 in the producing areas, waiting for the evolution of contradictions. [5] - Soybean Oil: There is insufficient speculation about the weather of US soybeans, lacking driving forces. [5] - Soybean Meal: US soybeans declined slightly, and Dalian soybean meal may oscillate. [5] - Soybean No. 1: Technically strong, the market rebounds and oscillates. [5] - Corn: Expected to oscillate and adjust. [5] - Sugar: Mainly expected to consolidate within a range. [5] - Cotton: Expected to maintain a slightly strong oscillation. [5] - Egg: The expectation of a rebound in the peak season has been fulfilled, and the sentiment of culling has declined. [5] - Pig: Expected to maintain oscillations. [5] - Peanut: There is support at the bottom. [5] Others - Log: Expected to oscillate repeatedly, with a trend strength of 1 [2][61]