黑色建材日报-20250716

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the black building materials market on July 16, 2025, covering steel, iron ore, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, industrial silicon, glass, and soda ash [1][4][7][13][16] - Overall, the market is influenced by macro - policies and fundamentals, with the need to pay attention to policy signals, terminal demand, and cost support [3] Group 2: Steel Price and Position - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3114 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton (-0.76%) from the previous trading day, with registered warehouse receipts increasing by 8179 tons and the main contract position increasing by 31509 lots [2] - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3259 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton (-0.51%) from the previous trading day, with registered warehouse receipts unchanged and the main contract position decreasing by 13515 lots [2] Market Analysis - Macro: The "Shantytown Renovation 2.0" expectation has failed. China's urbanization rate is 66%, and the policy for new housing renovation is "steady progress" [3] - Fundamentals: Rebar has a double - decline in supply and demand with accelerated inventory reduction; hot - rolled coils have a double - decline in supply and demand with a slight inventory increase [3] - Outlook: The market needs to pay attention to policy signals, especially the Politburo meeting at the end of July, as well as terminal demand and cost support [3] Group 3: Iron Ore Price and Position - The main contract (I2509) closed at 767.00 yuan/ton, up 0.07% (+0.50), with a position increase of 3867 lots to 66.87 million lots [5] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas shipments were stable, with Australian shipments down, Brazilian shipments up, and non - mainstream shipments slightly down, and near - end arrivals increasing [6] - Demand: The daily average pig iron output decreased to 239.81 tons due to regular maintenance and weather reasons [6] - Inventory: Port inventory decreased, and steel mill imported ore inventory increased [6] - Outlook: The price is short - term bullish and volatile, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and macro - realization nodes [6] Group 4: Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Price and Position - Manganese silicon main contract (SM509) closed up 0.03% at 5784 yuan/ton; the Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price was 5700 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [8] - Ferrosilicon main contract (SF509) closed up 0.18% at 5494 yuan/ton; the Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon spot price was 5530 yuan/ton, unchanged [8] Market Analysis - Technical: Manganese silicon is breaking away from the downward trend and is in a volatile rebound; ferrosilicon is in a wide - range shock [9] - Fundamentals: The industry has an over - supply pattern, with weakening future demand and potential cost reduction [9] - Outlook: Short - term prices are driven by sentiment. Speculators should be rational, and industrial players can hedge [10] Group 5: Industrial Silicon Price and Position - The main contract (SI2509) closed up 1.04% at 8785 yuan/ton. The spot price of East China non - oxygen 553 increased by 150 yuan/ton [14] Market Analysis - Technical: It has broken away from the downward trend since November 2024 and is in a short - term rebound [14] - Fundamentals: It has an over - supply problem and insufficient effective demand [14] - Outlook: Short - term prices are driven by sentiment. Speculators should be rational, and industrial players can hedge [15] Group 6: Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Spot prices in Shahe were flat, and in Central China, they increased by 30 yuan. The total inventory decreased by 2.87% [17] - The central finance meeting promoted the glass price rebound. In the medium term, avoid short positions [17] Soda Ash - The spot price decreased by 10 yuan. The total inventory increased by 1.11%, with heavy - soda inventory increasing [18] - Demand is weak, and the supply is loose in the medium term. The price is expected to be weak [18]