宁证期货今日早评-20250716

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various commodities and financial products, including crude oil, soda ash, silicon iron, etc., and provides short - term price trend forecasts and trading suggestions for each product [2][3][5]. - Economic recovery has a mixed impact on the bond market. The strong economic recovery momentum is fundamentally negative for the bond market, while the recent stock market correction is positive for the bond market, but the bond market is at a critical decision - making point [10]. 3. Summary by Product Commodities - Crude Oil: OPEC maintains demand and economic growth forecasts. US crude inventories are rising, and there are expectations of increased supply. The price is expected to be bearish at high levels [2]. - Soda Ash: The national heavy - quality soda ash price is in a downward trend. The market is in a state of shock adjustment. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [3]. - Silicon Iron: The cost support is insufficient, but the demand side is resilient. The current supply - demand is healthy, and the price is expected to follow the sector's fluctuations. There is a possibility of supply - demand gap replenishment in the future [5]. - Threaded Steel: Due to high - temperature weather affecting construction, steel demand is expected to weaken, and the price may fluctuate weakly [5]. - Coke: The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, but there is a strong expectation of a second price increase due to high coal prices. It is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly [6]. - Pig: The current price is slightly weak. Group - farm sales are increasing, and demand is weak. It is recommended for interval trading and farmers can consider hedging [6]. - Palm Oil: Malaysian export data is negative, and the domestic market is also weak. The price is expected to decline slightly in the short term [7]. - Soybean Meal: Trade tariff adjustments cause concerns about soybean supply. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate strongly, with support at 2900 - 2920 and resistance at 3030 [7][8]. - PTA: Polyester inventory is accumulating, demand is weak, and the price is recommended to be shorted at high levels [8]. - Rubber: Thai raw materials are stable with a slight increase. The overall supply - demand pattern is of increasing supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. - Methanol: The cost is stable, the domestic start - up is expected to increase, and the port may accumulate inventory. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [9]. - Plastic: Supply is expected to change little, demand is in the off - season, and the L 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [10]. Financial Products - Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds: Economic recovery is fundamentally negative for the bond market, but the recent stock market correction is positive. The bond market is at a critical decision - making point near the 60 - day moving average [10]. - Short - Term Treasury Bonds: The short - term capital is tight, which is negative for short - term treasury bonds. The short - end bonds may be weaker than the long - end bonds. The market logic is unclear, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw [11]. - Silver: Inflation data is slightly high, the dollar index has risen, and silver is expected to fluctuate slightly more. Attention should be paid to the relationship with gold [11]. - Gold: Geopolitical risks and tariff disturbances have strengthened, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely and be slightly bullish in the medium term. Attention should be paid to the dollar's movement [12].