研究所晨会观点精萃:美国通胀回升,美联储降息预期下降-20250716
Dong Hai Qi Huo·2025-07-16 02:33
- Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the US CPI in June increased, with the Fed's probability of a rate - cut decreasing, and the US dollar index rebounding. Domestically, the H1 economic growth exceeded expectations, but consumption and investment in June slowed down. The market sentiment was affected by the high H1 economic data and weak H2 policy expectations. Different asset classes have different short - term trends and operation suggestions [2]. - For various commodities, their prices are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and macro - economic conditions, with different short - term and long - term trends and operation strategies [6][9][11][16][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Macro: US inflation rebounded in June, with the overall CPI rising slightly and the core CPI falling short of expectations. The probability of a Fed rate - cut in July is extremely low, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut in September decreased. The US dollar index rebounded in the short term, and global risk appetite cooled. In China, H1 economic growth exceeded expectations, but consumption and investment in June slowed down. Policies aim to "combat involution" and "stabilize employment", which can boost domestic risk appetite in the short term, but market sentiment was affected by high H1 economic data and weak H2 policy expectations. For assets, the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; treasury bonds will fluctuate at a high level, and it is advisable to wait and see; for the commodity sector, black metals will rebound from a low - level fluctuation, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; non - ferrous metals will fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see; energy - chemicals will fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see; precious metals will fluctuate at a high level, and it is advisable to be cautiously long [2]. - Stock Index: The domestic stock market declined slightly due to the drag of sectors such as coal, silicon energy, and electricity. The H1 economic growth exceeded expectations, but consumption and investment in June slowed down. Policies can boost domestic risk appetite in the short term, but market sentiment was affected by high H1 economic data and weak H2 policy expectations. The market's trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and trade negotiation progress, and the short - term upward macro - driving force weakened. It is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term [3]. - Precious Metals: Precious metals declined narrowly on Tuesday. The US dollar reached a three - week high, suppressing the upward space of precious metals. The US CPI in June increased, and the Fed's internal opinions were divided. The long - term support logic for precious metals remains solid, with the "Big and Beautiful Act" accelerating the consumption of the US dollar's credit and geopolitical uncertainties and economic slowdown expectations strengthening the value of gold allocation. It is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term [4][5]. Black Metals - Steel: Steel futures and spot prices declined slightly on Tuesday, and market trading volume remained low. The H1 macro - economic data led to expectations of weakened policies. Real - world demand remained weak, and supply decreased. The cost - end support was still strong. It is advisable to view the steel market with an interval - fluctuation mindset in the short term [6]. - Iron Ore: Iron ore futures and spot prices rebounded slightly on Tuesday. Although the demand for finished products was in the off - season and steel sales pressure increased, the demand for imported ore prices had some support. Supply decreased after the end - of - quarter rush. The short - term macro - logic dominated, and iron ore prices were still fluctuating strongly [6]. - Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat on Tuesday, and the futures prices rebounded slightly. The demand for ferroalloys decreased. The short - term prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese may rebound following coal prices [7][8]. - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures price declined from a high on Tuesday. Supply was in an oversupply pattern, demand was mainly for rigid needs, and profits decreased. Market concerns about capacity exit due to "combat involution" led to short - term policy - based trading, but the long - term price was suppressed by the supply - demand pattern [9]. - Glass: The glass futures price was weak on Tuesday. Supply pressure increased during the off - season, and there were expectations of production cuts. Demand was weak, and profits increased. Policy information supported the price in the short term, but a long - term reversal requires the cooperation of downstream demand and the implementation of policies [10]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - Copper: Although US inflation accelerated month - on - month, the overall CPI met expectations and the core CPI fell short of expectations. The key to the future copper price lies in the tariff implementation time, which is still uncertain [11]. - Aluminum: Social inventories increased significantly, far exceeding expectations. The fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum weakened. After a short - term fluctuation, the price resumed its downward trend. It is advisable to look for resistance levels to short [11]. - Aluminum Alloy: The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and production costs increased, leading to losses for some enterprises. It is in the off - season for demand, and orders were weak. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate strongly, but the upside space is limited [11]. - Tin: The supply of tin increased slightly, and the demand was weak. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate, but the upside space will be suppressed in the medium term [12]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price of lithium carbonate increased slightly on Tuesday. Production reached a new high, and inventories continued to accumulate. Although the fundamentals have not improved, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to the "combat involution" policy [13]. - Industrial Silicon: The price of industrial silicon increased on Tuesday. Production increased significantly, and the price was boosted by the "combat involution" policy and the rebound of coking coal [14]. - Polysilicon: The price of polysilicon increased on Tuesday. Supply was stable at a low level, and downstream prices increased. Affected by policy news, the short - term expectation is strong, and it is advisable to be cautiously long [15]. Energy and Chemicals - Methanol: Mainland plants restarted intensively, traditional demand increased slightly, and port inventories increased. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate, and the 01 contract is a seasonal contract, with opportunities to go long [16]. - PP: The weekly production of PP is expected to increase slightly, supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weak in the off - season. The price center is expected to move down, and it is necessary to be vigilant about oil - price fluctuations [16]. - LLDPE: Demand is in the off - season, downstream operations are weakening, and inventories are rising. The short - term price may rebound, but the upside space is limited. The medium - to - long - term price center may move down [16]. Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: The price of CBOT soybeans in November declined slightly. The US soybean crushing volume in June was higher than expected, and the proportion of good - to - excellent soybean crops increased [17]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: US soybeans are under short - term pressure due to Sino - US soybean trade relations. The substitution cost - performance of soybean meal is high, and the consumption of rapeseed meal in the peak season is far below expectations [17][18]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Oil: The supply - demand of soybean oil is loose, and the far - month supply pressure is fully priced. The port inventory of rapeseed oil is slowly decreasing, and the policy premium support is weakening [18]. - Palm Oil: Palm oil inventories are being repaired, demand expectations are weak, and the short - term downward risk has increased. Malaysian palm oil exports declined in the first 15 days of July [18]. - Corn: In addition to the impact of seasonal auctions of imported corn, the expected increase in auctions of old rice in August may impact the corn price. The downstream feed enterprises are cautious, and the futures price of the 09 contract is expected to be stable after a decline [19]. - Pigs: Pig prices began to decline in mid - July. The demand may increase in late August, and the short - term price is expected to be under pressure. The fat - to - standard basis is shrinking seasonally, and some second - fattening operations are facing losses [19][20].