美国6月CPI点评：关税对通胀的影响开始显现

Inflation Data - The US June CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, up from 2.4% in May, while the core CPI rose by 2.9%, slightly below the expected 3.0%[2] - Month-on-month, the seasonally adjusted CPI rose by 0.3%, exceeding the previous value of 0.1% and the 12-month average of 0.2%[2] - Core CPI month-on-month increased by 0.2%, matching the 12-month average but lower than the expected 0.3%[2] Tariff Impact - The report indicates that tariffs are beginning to affect goods inflation, while the transmission to services inflation remains insignificant[2] - The energy component saw a month-on-month increase from -1.0% to 0.9%, primarily due to a significant rise in gasoline prices[2] Market Reactions - Following the CPI release, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices fell by 0.4% and 1.0%, respectively, while the Nasdaq index rose by 0.2%[3] - The 10-year US Treasury yield increased by 4.8 basis points to 4.48%, and the dollar index rose by 0.5% to 98.6[3] Interest Rate Expectations - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve have slightly decreased, with the probability of a September cut dropping from 65% to 58%[3] - The likelihood of two rate cuts within the year has decreased from approximately 93% to 76%[3] Future Outlook - The report warns of ongoing inflationary pressures in the US, suggesting that expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts should be tempered[4] - Trade negotiations are critical, with the tariff exemption period ending soon, and the market anticipates low chances of reaching agreements with most countries[4]