Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is affected by multiple factors, with the overall trend being range - bound. The domestic soybean meal market is multi - faceted, and trading strategies should be adjusted according to cost and supply - demand changes [3][5]. - The EPA policy supports the central level of the oil market, but there are still many negative factors. The market is expected to show an oscillating trend, with potential for an upward movement in the fourth quarter [7][10]. - The domestic sugar market may face increased import pressure in the second half of the year, and the price of Zhengzhou sugar is likely to continue to decline [12][13]. - The cotton market is expected to remain oscillating in the short term, waiting for new driving factors [15][16]. - The egg market is currently in a bottoming - out period, with limited short - term rebound space. A strategy of waiting for a rebound and then short - selling is recommended [18][19]. - The pig market has a short - term upward trend, but there are medium - term supply and hedging pressures [22]. Summary by Category Soybean/Meal - Market Situation: On Tuesday, U.S. soybeans fell slightly. Good weather in North America and potential impacts of the trade war on exports pressured prices, but low valuation, strong old - crop sales, and biodiesel policies supported demand. Domestic soybean meal futures oscillated, with concerns about insufficient future purchases and current supply pressure. Spot prices were stable. According to MYSTEEL, 2.2954 million tons of soybeans were crushed last week, and 2.3803 million tons are expected to be crushed this week. The rainfall in the U.S. soybean - producing areas is favorable in the next two weeks, and the Brazilian soybean premium has risen slightly [3]. - Trading Strategy: The import cost of foreign soybeans is oscillating. The overall supply of soybeans or protein is still in surplus. The domestic soybean meal market has low valuation, short - term high supply, active downstream pick - up, and medium - to - high inventory days for feed enterprises. However, the purchase of soybeans from September to January is cost - supported due to Sino - U.S. tariffs. It is recommended to try long positions at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the upper end, waiting for progress in Sino - U.S. tariffs and new supply - side drivers [5]. Oil - Important Information: High - frequency export data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1 - 10 are expected to increase by 5.31% - 12%, and from June 1 - 15, they are expected to decrease by 5.29% - 6.16%. SPPOMA data shows that from July 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield increased by 35.43%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.02%, and production increased by 35.28%. India's palm oil imports in June increased by 60% month - on - month to 955,683 tons, soybean oil imports decreased by 9.8% to 359,504 tons, and sunflower oil imports increased by 17.8% to 216,141 tons. The total vegetable oil imports in June were 1.549825 million tons, a 30.6% increase from May. According to MYSTEEL, the total inventory of the three major domestic oils last week was 2.298 million tons (+40,000 tons), compared with 1.9653 million tons in the same period last year. The increase in inventory is mainly due to the seasonal accumulation of palm oil and soybean oil, and the year - on - year high is due to the high rapeseed oil inventory and slow destocking [7]. - Market Situation: On Tuesday, domestic palm oil oscillated and declined, affected by weak high - frequency export data. Rapeseed oil was relatively weak, pressured by recent diplomatic contacts between China and Canada and China and Australia, and the decline in foreign rapeseed prices. Overall, the EPA policy has raised the annual operating center of the oil market, but the palm oil production in Southeast Asia has recovered significantly, and there are still negative factors in the oil market. The domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [8]. - Trading Strategy: The U.S. biodiesel policy draft has exceeded expectations and supported the central level of the oil market. If demand countries maintain normal imports from July to September and palm oil production in the producing areas remains at a neutral level, the inventory in the producing areas may remain stable. There may be an upward expectation in the fourth quarter due to Indonesia's B50 policy. However, the current valuation is relatively high, and the upward space is restricted by factors such as the annual - level production increase expectation, high palm oil production in the producing areas, and the undetermined RVO rules. The market should be viewed as oscillating [10]. Sugar - Key Information: On Tuesday, the price of Zhengzhou sugar futures oscillated weakly. The closing price of the September contract was 5,802 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton or 0.26% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the quotation of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 6,030 - 6,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; the quotation of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5,810 - 5,850 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the mainstream quotation range of processing sugar mills was 6,180 - 6,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0 - 30 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis of Guangxi spot - Zhengzhou sugar main contract (sr2509) was 228 yuan/ton. According to UNICA data, in the second half of June, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 42.7 million tons, a decrease of 6.3 million tons or 12.86% from the same period last year; the sugar - to - cane ratio was 53.15%, an increase of 3.21 percentage points from the same period last year; the sugar production was 2.845 million tons, a decrease of 424,000 tons or 12.98% from the same period last year [12]. - Trading Strategy: China is currently in the best import profit window in the past five years, and the import supply pressure may increase in the second half of the year. Theoretically, the domestic production and sales situation is still good. With the expected increase in imports in the second half of the year, the spread of near - month contracts should go long, and the spread of far - month contracts should go short. However, the actual market trend is the opposite, making the valuation of the September contract of Zhengzhou sugar higher than other contracts. Assuming that the foreign market price does not rebound significantly, the price of Zhengzhou sugar is likely to continue to decline [13]. Cotton - Key Information: On Tuesday, the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to oscillate. The closing price of the September contract was 13,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton or 0.18% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton (CCIndex 3128B) was 15,170 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton (CCIndex 3128B) - Zhengzhou cotton main contract (CF2509) was 1,320 yuan/ton. According to USDA data, as of the week ending July 13, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of U.S. cotton was 54%, an increase of 2 percentage points from the previous week, reaching the highest level in the same period in the past four years; the budding rate was 61%, an increase of 13 percentage points from the previous week, slightly lower than the same period last year and the five - year average; the boll - setting rate was 23%, an increase of 9 percentage points from the previous week, a decrease of 3 percentage points from the same period last year, but slightly higher than the five - year average [15]. - Trading Strategy: Although the Sino - U.S. trade agreement has not been finalized, the price of Zhengzhou cotton has rebounded to the level before the announcement of U.S. counter - tariffs, partly reflecting the positive expectation. Fundamentally, the recent strengthening of the basis between futures and spot is not conducive to downstream consumption. The market expects that sliding - scale import quotas may be issued from July to August, which is a potential negative factor for cotton prices. It is expected that the cotton price will remain oscillating in the short term, waiting for new driving factors [16]. Eggs - Market Situation: The prices of eggs across the country were mostly stable, with a few rising. The average price in the main producing areas increased by 0.01 yuan to 2.75 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan remained at 2.3 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao remained at 2.58 yuan/jin. The supply was stable, the downstream sales speed was normal, with a few areas experiencing a slowdown. All sectors mostly purchased and sold in line with the market trend, and the inventory was not large. It is expected that the egg price will remain stable today, with a few areas experiencing slight fluctuations [18][21]. - Trading Strategy: Despite continuous losses, the reduction in production capacity is still limited. The large supply has postponed the seasonal rebound of the spot price. The current spot price has gradually entered the bottom - building range, but the short - term rebound space is limited due to inventory pressure. Considering the high premium of the futures market and large open interest, time is not favorable for near - month long positions. For far - month contracts, the potential for a seasonal rebound is uncertain due to the ineffective reduction in production capacity. A strategy of waiting for a rebound and then short - selling is recommended [19]. Pigs - Market Situation: Since late June, the spot price of pigs has rebounded significantly, accompanied by a reduction in slaughter volume and a decline in body weight, indicating a seasonal decrease in supply in the middle of the year. With a relatively low proportion of retail farmers and a large price difference between fat and standard pigs, there is still room for an increase in the second - fattening pen. This plays a supporting role from the side [22]. - Trading Strategy: Given the current situation where the spot price is likely to rise and difficult to fall, and the futures market, especially the near - month contracts, is at a discount, the downward space is limited. There may still be room for short - term long positions, but in the medium term, supply back - log and the pressure of hedging positions need to be considered [22].
五矿期货农产品早报-20250716
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-07-16 02:42