山金期货黑色板块日报-20250716

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Steel Products: The steel market is currently trading on weak reality and strong expectations. The real - estate data is still weak, and the industry is in the process of bottom - building. The steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and with the arrival of high - temperature weather, demand is expected to weaken further, and inventory may rise slightly. Strong expectations mainly come from potential supply - side reforms. Technically, the futures prices face resistance after a pulsed rise [2]. - Iron Ore: The short - term iron ore market is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend under the boost of news. However, in the long - term, the futures price is in a downward cycle. With the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel mill production restrictions, iron ore demand is expected to decline, and the relatively high port inventory and trade ore inventory ratio put pressure on the price [4]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Threaded Bars and Hot - Rolled Coils - Market Background: The economic data for the second quarter and the first half of 2025 shows that the real - estate industry is still weak. The Central Urban Work Conference did not bring the expected major positive news. The supply - demand data from My Steel shows a state of weak supply and demand [2]. - Technical Analysis: After a pulsed rise, the futures prices encounter resistance, with the previous gap and the annual line as resistance levels [2]. - Operation Suggestion: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude [2]. - Data Summary: - Prices: The closing prices of threaded bar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices show certain fluctuations. For example, the closing price of the threaded bar futures main contract is 3114 yuan/ton, down 0.76% from the previous day [2]. - Production: The production of threaded bars and hot - rolled coils decreased last week. The national building materials steel mill threaded bar production was 216.66 million tons, down 2.00% from the previous week [2]. - Inventory: The total inventory of five major steel products decreased, with the social inventory of threaded bars decreasing and the factory inventory increasing slightly [2]. - Trading Volume: The trading volume in the spot market decreased, such as the 7 - day moving average of the national building steel trading volume being 18.67 million tons, down 13.38% from the previous day [2]. II. Iron Ore - Supply - Demand Situation: The steel mill profitability is acceptable, but with the end of the consumption peak and production restrictions, iron ore demand is expected to decline. The global iron ore shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally, and the port inventory decline rate is slowing down, which puts pressure on prices [4]. - Technical Analysis: The futures price is in a long - term downward cycle, and the recent short - term rise is mainly affected by news, facing resistance from the previous gap and the annual line [4]. - Data Summary: - Prices: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore futures main contract is 767 yuan/dry ton, up 4.64% from the previous week. Different iron ore powder prices in ports also show various changes [4][5]. - Supply: The global iron ore shipment is rising, with Australian shipments at 1569.9 million tons, down 0.97% from the previous week, and Brazilian shipments at 709.9 million tons, up 22.63% from the previous week [5]. - Inventory: The port inventory is 13765.89 million tons, down 0.81% from the previous week, and the trade ore inventory ratio is relatively high [5]. III. Industry News - The price of coke has been raised, with wet - quenched coke prices in Tangshan and Xingtai rising by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke prices rising by 55 yuan/ton. Some steel mills in Shandong have also raised their coke purchase prices [7]. - The first round of coke price increases has been fully implemented, and the price of coking coal in some origin auctions has risen significantly. The import Mongolian coal market has high - level quotations with limited transactions. The three major ports have resumed normal customs clearance, and the inventory at the Ganqimaodu Port has dropped to 3 million tons [7]. - From January to June, the national real - estate development investment was 4665.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2%, and the housing construction area decreased by 9.1% year - on - year [7].