多晶硅：政策预期扭转情绪

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "anti-involution" policy orientation and the silicon material industry's active exploration of capacity exit plans have led to a rapid rebound in the polysilicon futures price under strong expectations. Despite the weak fundamentals, the short - term unfalsifiable policy is a strong upward driver, and the polysilicon futures price has hit the daily limit twice [1]. - After the price rebound, the short - term high point depends more on capital games and overall market sentiment changes. If the polysilicon industry's capacity exit policy is expected to be implemented, the upper price limit can reach 45,000 yuan/ton, but it requires multi - factor resonance [2][13]. - The short - term price volatility of the polysilicon futures is amplified, and the polysilicon VIX is at a historical high. Attention should be paid to risk control, and both long and short positions should be cautious [2][19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Surge after the Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission - On July 1st, the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized the governance of low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises and the promotion of the orderly exit of backward production capacity. On the next day, polysilicon and other over - capacity varieties started to rise, with polysilicon rising most rapidly. The 2508 contract once exceeded 42,000 yuan/ton, and the futures hit the daily limit twice [5]. 3.2 Reasons for Polysilicon's Reaction - Analysis in the "Qiushi" Article: The "Qiushi" article pointed out that the reasons for "involution" include supply - demand imbalance at the macro - economic level, supply - demand structural contradictions in emerging industries, and an imperfect system for maintaining a fair competition environment. The new energy industry represented by photovoltaics is an important potential target for "anti - involution", and silicon materials, as the upstream link of the industrial chain, are included [6][7]. - Industry's Active Adjustment: In late 2024, silicon material enterprises reached a "self - disciplined production control" agreement to maintain a low operating rate. There are also plans to "store" the existing silicon material capacity and inventory to integrate capacity. Relevant ministries and commissions have also held meetings on the "anti - involution" of the photovoltaic industry, making the logic of silicon material capacity clearance clearer [8]. 3.3 Market Fundamentals - Supply - demand Situation: As of now, the SMM - caliber polysilicon inventory is about 276,000 tons, and the industry - wide inventory is estimated to be over 400,000 tons. In July and August, the production schedules of silicon material factories are increasing, with a potential increase of over 10,000 tons in July compared to June, while the production schedules of downstream sectors are generally declining in July, and the supply pressure remains [10]. - Demand Situation: The "530" policy led to a significant increase in new photovoltaic installations from January to May. The new photovoltaic installations from January to May reached 197.85GW, a year - on - year increase of nearly 150%, and the new installations in May alone reached 92.92GW. However, the market is not very optimistic about the terminal demand in the second half of the year [10]. 3.4 Future Price Outlook - Short - term High Point: After the price rebound, the short - term high point depends on capital games and market sentiment. If the capacity exit policy is implemented, the price can reach 45,000 yuan/ton. Currently, the spot prices of silicon material enterprises have generally increased, and downstream sectors have also followed suit. The subsequent focus is on whether downstream sectors will make large - scale purchases and the increase in actual transaction prices [2][13]. - Policy and Demand Considerations: At the end of July, there will be an important meeting. Attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" policy orientation and the progress of the industry's capacity exit. In addition to supply - side policies, whether the demand side can present new opportunities is also worthy of consideration. For photovoltaics, demand growth may be a long - term issue [19].