美国6月CPI：关税传导仅部分显现

Inflation Data Summary - The core CPI in the US for June increased by 0.23% month-on-month, slightly below the Bloomberg consensus expectation of 0.3%[1] - Year-on-year, the core CPI rose by 0.1 percentage points to 2.9%, meeting expectations[1] - The overall CPI month-on-month rose from 0.08% in May to 0.29% in June, with a year-on-year increase of 0.3 percentage points to 2.7%, slightly above the expected 2.6%[1] Tariff Impact - The report indicates that tariff impacts are beginning to show, particularly in core goods and services, despite some weakness in used and new car prices[2] - 88% of manufacturing firms and 82% of service firms plan to pass tariff costs onto consumers within three months, contradicting claims that tariffs do not affect domestic prices[2] Federal Reserve Outlook - The analysis maintains the expectation of two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September and December due to potential labor market slowdowns[2] - The market's expectation for a rate cut in September has decreased to 54%[1] Specific Item Analysis - Core goods inflation rebounded to 0.20% month-on-month from -0.04% in May, driven by significant increases in clothing, furniture, and entertainment goods[5] - Energy prices saw a notable recovery, with energy goods rising by 3.5 percentage points to 1.04% month-on-month, contributing to a 0.1 percentage point increase in overall CPI[5] Risks and Considerations - Risks include the possibility that tariff impacts on domestic prices may be less than expected and the potential for significant tightening of financial conditions in the US[3]