Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-07-16 03:44Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shandong Gold is maintained at "Buy" [2] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit significantly from rising gold prices, with Q2 performance showing a substantial quarter-on-quarter increase in net profit [7] - The average gold price in H1 2025 was 723 CNY per gram, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 38.3%, while Q2 2025 saw a price of 773 CNY per gram, up 15.2% quarter-on-quarter [7] - The company has multiple ongoing projects that are expected to enhance its production capacity, including the Cardino project, which is projected to produce 8.4 tons of gold annually upon reaching full capacity [7] - The report emphasizes that gold's role as a financial product has shifted towards safety, which is expected to sustain the upward trend in gold prices [7] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 6.867 billion CNY, 8.496 billion CNY, and 9.480 billion CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 20, 17, and 15 [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 110.230 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 33.6% [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 6.867 billion CNY for 2025, representing a significant year-on-year increase of 132.6% [5] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve to 20.4% in 2025, up from 15.6% in Q1 2025 [5] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to reach 15.4% in 2025, indicating strong profitability [5]