铜冠金源期货商品日报-20250716

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, mild CPI data boosted market sentiment, while tariff risks continued to affect expectations. The market digested the probability of no rate cut in July and a 54% probability of a rate cut in September. In China, the Q2 GDP exceeded expectations at 5.2%, but structural issues persisted, with production being strong and demand weakening. The Central Urban Work Conference emphasized the medium - to long - term real estate direction [2][3]. - For precious metals, silver prices are in short - term adjustment, but the upward trend remains unchanged. Copper is expected to enter a short - term shock, with Shanghai copper stabilizing and waiting for new drivers. Aluminum prices are in shock adjustment due to the consumption off - season. Alumina is in a strong shock. Zinc prices are weakly oscillating due to the cooling of rate - cut and policy expectations. Lead prices are dragged down by LME inventory increases. Tin prices are oscillating due to macro - and micro - level factors. Industrial silicon is expected to continue to rebound. Lithium carbonate prices are oscillating. Nickel prices are oscillating without clear guidance. Crude oil prices are oscillating due to geopolitical risks. Steel futures are oscillating downward. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate in the short term. Bean and rapeseed meal may oscillate strongly. Palm oil may enter an oscillating adjustment phase [4][6][8][10][11][13][15][16][18][20][21][22][24][25][28]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: In June, the US CPI was lower than expected, with the core CPI at 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. The US reduced tariffs on Indonesia to 19%, and the US Treasury Secretary stated that China - US tariff negotiations were progressing smoothly. The dollar index was above 98.5, the 10Y US Treasury yield approached 4.5%, the US stock market opened high and closed low, gold prices rose and then fell, and copper and oil prices oscillated [2]. - Domestic: Q2 GDP exceeded expectations at 5.2%, but structural issues remained. Industrial added value in June was much higher than expected, while investment weakened across the board, the real estate market was sluggish, and social retail sales were lower than expected. After the data release, the bond market rose, and the A - share market adjusted. The Central Urban Work Conference emphasized the medium - to long - term real estate direction [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - International precious metal futures continued to correct on Tuesday. COMEX gold futures fell 0.85% to $3330.50 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 1.95% to $37.99 per ounce. Silver prices are in short - term adjustment, but the upward trend remains unchanged [4]. 3.3 Base Metals - Copper: Shanghai copper's main contract stopped falling and stabilized. The LME copper price was seeking support at the $9600 level. The domestic inflation transmission process was slow, and it is expected that the inflation pressure in the US will increase significantly in July - August. China's GDP growth in the first half of the year exceeded expectations, and the market is expected to enter a short - term shock [6][7]. - Aluminum: Shanghai aluminum's main contract closed at 20430 yuan/ton, down 0.02%. The market is in the consumption off - season, and aluminum prices are in shock adjustment [8]. - Alumina: Alumina futures' main contract closed at 3165 yuan/ton, up 1.22%. The spot market is in a strong shock [10]. - Zinc: Shanghai zinc's main contract oscillated weakly. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut has cooled, and zinc prices are weakly oscillating [11][12]. - Lead: Shanghai lead's main contract fell during the day and rebounded at night. LME inventory increased significantly, dragging down Shanghai lead prices. The short - term downward trend is expected to slow down [13][14]. - Tin: Shanghai tin's main contract first rose and then fell during the day and stabilized at night. Macro - and micro - level factors are in a stalemate, and tin prices are oscillating [15]. 3.4 Other Metals and Minerals - Industrial Silicon: The main contract of industrial silicon continued to rebound. The supply side is in a tight state, and with the boost of new policies, it is expected to continue to rebound [16][17]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price of lithium carbonate futures oscillated widely, and the spot price rose slightly. Policy - related disturbances have not materialized, and lithium prices are oscillating [18][19]. - Nickel: Nickel prices oscillated widely. Core inflation rose but was lower than expected. The cost side is expected to decline, and nickel prices are oscillating without clear guidance [20]. 3.5 Energy - Crude oil prices were weakly operating. Geopolitical risks may rise again, and the market is in shock. Investors should be cautious and wait and see in the short term [21]. 3.6 Steel - Steel futures oscillated downward. The Central Urban Work Conference did not meet expectations, and the demand is weak. Steel prices are expected to adjust [22][23]. 3.7 Iron Ore - Iron ore futures oscillated at a high level. The supply and demand are in a weak balance, and iron ore prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [24]. 3.8 Agricultural Products - Bean and Rapeseed Meal: US soybean crushing volume in June was higher than expected, and the weather in the producing areas is good. The market may oscillate strongly [25][26]. - Palm Oil: Malaysian palm oil export demand declined in the first half of July. Palm oil may enter an oscillating adjustment phase [27][28].