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6月经济数据点评:量价分配开启再均衡之路
Huachuang Securities·2025-07-16 04:42

Economic Growth - The GDP growth rate for Q2 is 5.2%, with a cumulative growth rate of 5.3% for the first half of the year, indicating a reduced difficulty in achieving the annual GDP target[2] - The nominal GDP growth rate for Q2 is 3.94%, with a contribution rate of 132% from volume and -30.6% from price, highlighting a high degree of imbalance in volume-price distribution[2][9] - Final consumption expenditure contributed 52.3% to economic growth in Q2, slightly up from Q1, while capital formation contributed 24.7% and net exports contributed 23%[3][25] Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment growth in June was -0.1%, down from 2.7% in the previous month, with manufacturing and infrastructure investment both declining[4][55] - The consumer spending growth rate in June was 4.8%, down from 6.4%, with notable declines in restaurant and related goods consumption[4][44] - The consumer propensity to spend was 68.6% in Q2, slightly higher than the previous year's 68.5%, indicating a stable consumer sentiment[5][28] Capacity Utilization and Employment - The capacity utilization rate for Q2 was 74.0%, down from 74.9% in the same period last year, with several industries showing declines[3][32] - The total number of rural migrant workers was 19.139 million at the end of Q2, with a year-on-year growth of 0.7%[3][35] - The urban survey unemployment rate remained stable at 5.0% in June, reflecting a steady employment situation[40]