新能源及有色金属日报：升贴水小幅上升，沪镍盘面震荡为主-20250716

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the nickel market, the supply surplus situation remains, and the short - term operation is recommended to be postponed. The medium - and long - term strategy is to sell hedging on rallies. The estimated upper limit of the recent range is 122,000 - 123,000 yuan/ton, and the lower limit is 117,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton [1][2]. - For the stainless steel market, the market confidence is still insufficient. The short - term operation is recommended to be postponed, and the medium - and long - term strategy is also to sell hedging on rallies. The estimated upper limit of the recent range is 13,000 - 13,100 yuan/ton, and the lower limit is 12,400 - 12,500 yuan/ton [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - Market Analysis - On July 15, 2025, the main contract 2508 of Shanghai nickel opened at 120,440 yuan/ton and closed at 119,380 yuan/ton, a change of - 1.15% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 94,219 lots, and the open interest was 62,803 lots. The contract showed a weak shock, and the trading volume and open interest increased compared with the previous trading day. The red column area of the daily MACD continued to narrow, and there was still a need for short - term correction. The 117,000 yuan/ton level was estimated to be a strong support in the medium - and long - term [1]. - In the spot market, the morning quotes of Jinchuan nickel and other mainstream brands decreased. The trading sentiment of refined nickel improved, but the supply surplus pattern remained unchanged. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 100 yuan/ton to 2,050 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 350 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 21,555 (259.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 206,580 (0) tons [1]. - Strategy - The short - term operation is recommended to be postponed. The medium - and long - term strategy is to sell hedging on rallies. The trading strategy is mainly range trading for single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]. Stainless Steel Variety - Market Analysis - On July 15, 2025, the main contract 2509 of stainless steel opened at 12,700 yuan/ton and closed at 12,675 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 97,583 lots, and the open interest was 93,471 lots. The contract rose first and then fell, and the trading volume and open interest increased due to the contract switch. The expansion speed of the red column area of the daily MACD slowed down, and there was pressure above the 40 - day moving average. The 12,400 yuan/ton level was estimated to be a strong support in the medium - and long - term [2]. - In the spot market, most quotes in the Foshan market remained the same as the previous trading day, and the trading volume did not improve significantly, with insufficient market confidence. The nickel - iron market quotes decreased, and it was expected that the nickel - iron price would be weak in the short term. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,800 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 12,775 yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 170 - 370 yuan/ton [2]. - Strategy - The short - term operation is recommended to be postponed. The medium - and long - term strategy is to sell hedging on rallies. The single - side strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4].