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新能源及有色金属日报:下游消费情绪欠佳,铜价维持震荡格局-20250716
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-07-16 05:02

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral; Arbitrage: Suspended; Options: Suspended [8] Core View of the Report - This week, the Shanghai copper price showed a fluctuating downward trend, mainly due to the widening of the spread between Comex and LME under the influence of Trump's tariff policy, which led to a decline in copper prices in non - US markets. Domestic copper prices are temporarily suppressed, and social inventories have increased. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see attitude for now [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On July 15, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 77,900 yuan/ton and closed at 78,090 yuan/ton, a - 0.40% decrease from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 77,960 yuan/ton and closed at 78,070 yuan/ton, a 0.18% increase from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - According to SMM, on the previous day, the 1 electrolytic copper spot was quoted at a premium of 90 - 180 yuan/ton to the 2507 contract, with an average premium of 135 yuan/ton, a 155 - yuan/ton increase from the previous day. As it was the last trading day of the 2507 contract, the market mainly quoted for the 2508 contract. After entering the 2508 contract, it is expected that the initial quote will maintain a 150 - yuan/ton premium, but the spot premium may quickly decline due to low inventory costs and weak demand [2] Important Information Summary - Macro and Geopolitical: In the US, the overall CPI annual rate in June rose to 2.7%, the highest since February, and the monthly rate was 0.3%, the highest since January. The core CPI annual rate rose to 2.9%. Interest rate futures show that the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates this month is small, but there is a high possibility of a 25 - basis - point cut in September. The US and Indonesia reached a trade agreement, and the US will impose a 19% tariff on Indonesian goods. China's economy grew 5.3% year - on - year in the first half of the year, and 5.2% in the second quarter [3] - Mine End: On July 14, Tyranna Resources signed an agreement to acquire a 70% stake in the Maongo copper - gold project in Angola, which is expected to get approval in the third quarter [4] - Smelting and Import: In June 2025, the output of ten non - ferrous metals was 6.95 million tons, a 4.4% year - on - year increase. The cumulative output from January to June was 40.32 million tons, a 2.9% cumulative year - on - year increase. The Ministry of Commerce adjusted the "Catalogue of Technologies Prohibited and Restricted from Export in China" [4] - Consumption: The operating rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises rebounded to 67%, but was still 4.56 percentage points lower than expected. The operating rate of the copper cable industry reached 71.52%. It is expected that the operating rate of copper rod enterprises will rise to 74.57% next week, and the operating rate of the copper cable industry will fall to 70.57% [5] - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: LME warehouse receipts changed by 850 tons to 110,475 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 15,754 tons to 50,133 tons. On July 14, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 147,600 tons, a change of 3,900 tons from the previous week [6][7] Table Data - The table shows copper price and basis data from July 16, 2025, including spot premiums, inventory, warehouse receipts, arbitrage, and import profitability [29][30][31]