光大期货软商品日报-20250716

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The cotton market is expected to be volatile. ICE US cotton rose 0.66% to 68.57 cents/pound on Tuesday, while CF509 decreased 0.36% to 13,850 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest dropped by 11,044 lots to 546,700 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang increased by 4 yuan/ton to 15,286 yuan/ton, and the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B rose by 7 yuan/ton to 15,302 yuan/ton. With the US CPI data in line with expectations and core CPI lower than expected, the market anticipates two interest rate cuts this year, with the next one likely in September. Domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price declined slightly, but the night session strengthened. The previous factors supporting the cotton price increase - weather and low inventory - have limited sustainability. With strong expectations of a new cotton harvest and no obvious improvement in demand, the cotton price may fluctuate in the short - term and gradually decline in the long - term [1]. - The sugar market is also expected to be volatile. In the second half of June, Brazil's central - southern region had a 12.86% year - on - year decrease in sugarcane crushing volume to 42.706 million tons, a decrease in ATR, an increase in the sugar - making ratio, and significant year - on - year decreases in ethanol and sugar production. Domestic sugar prices showed mixed trends, with some price adjustments. The Brazilian sugar production still has uncertainties, and the domestic sugar market has a large divergence between bulls and bears, with import pressure on the upside and basis and raw sugar support on the downside [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - Cotton: ICE US cotton rose 0.66%, CF509 fell 0.36%. The main contract's open interest decreased. Xinjiang cotton arrival price and the China Cotton Price Index increased. US CPI data met expectations, and the market anticipates interest rate cuts. Domestically, the futures price declined slightly during the day and strengthened at night. The factors supporting the price increase have limited sustainability, and the new cotton harvest is expected to be good with weak demand [1]. - Sugar: In the second half of June, Brazil's sugarcane crushing volume, ATR, ethanol, and sugar production decreased year - on - year, while the sugar - making ratio increased. Domestic sugar prices had different trends, with some adjustments. The Brazilian production is uncertain, and the domestic market has a large divergence between bulls and bears [1]. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 9 - 1 spread was 30 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The main contract basis was 1452 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton. The Xinjiang spot price was 15,286 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton, and the national spot price was 15,302 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton [2]. - Sugar: The 9 - 1 spread was 173 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton. The main contract basis was 288 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. The Nanning spot price was 6060 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the Liuzhou spot price was 6090 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [2]. Market Information - On July 15, the cotton futures warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 91 to 9716, with 223 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were reported, and the yarn and short - fiber cloth load and inventory data were also provided [3]. - On July 15, the sugar spot prices in Nanning were unchanged, and those in Liuzhou decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The sugar futures warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 114 to 22,602, with 0 valid forecasts [3][4]. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, spread, and warehouse receipt data of the main contracts, showing the historical trends from 2021 - 2025 [6][8][10][12][14][15]. Research Team Personnel Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry. He has won many awards in relevant analyst evaluations [19]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for research on urea, soda ash, and glass futures. She has won multiple honors [20]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in the fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys. He has won the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's textile product senior analyst title [21].