Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The polyester industry chain fluctuated and declined following costs. The EG futures and spot prices decreased, with the EG main - contract closing price at 4322 yuan/ton (down 35 yuan/ton, - 0.80% from the previous trading day) and the EG East China spot price at 4399 yuan/ton (down 6 yuan/ton, - 0.14% from the previous trading day). The EG East China spot basis was 68 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - The ethylene - based EG production profit was - 54 dollars/ton (up 4 dollars/ton month - on - month), and the coal - based syngas EG production profit was 47 yuan/ton (up 16 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory at the East China main port was 55.3 tons (down 2.7 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 48.1 tons (down 6.1 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main port last week was 9.6 tons, with a slight reduction in port inventory. This week, the planned arrival at the East China main port is 4.5 tons, while the planned arrival at the secondary port is concentrated at 6.5 tons [1]. - On the supply side, the domestic EG production is expected to increase as the maintenance period has passed, and the load will gradually return to a high level in July. Overseas, the supply is expected to be loose as overseas plants restart. On the demand side, it is expected to be weak due to high terminal inventory and low restocking willingness during the off - season. The short - term supply - demand structure is still good, but the inventory accumulation pressure will increase in late July [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report presents the EG East China spot price and basis, with the EG main - contract closing price at 4322 yuan/ton (down 35 yuan/ton, - 0.80% from the previous trading day) and the EG East China spot price at 4399 yuan/ton (down 6 yuan/ton, - 0.14% from the previous trading day), and the EG East China spot basis at 68 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The ethylene - based EG production profit was - 54 dollars/ton (up 4 dollars/ton month - on - month), and the coal - based syngas EG production profit was 47 yuan/ton (up 16 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] International Spread - Not elaborated in the given text, only mentioned in the directory [4] Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - Not elaborated in the given text, only mentioned in the directory [4] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory at the East China main port was 55.3 tons (down 2.7 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 48.1 tons (down 6.1 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main port last week was 9.6 tons, with a slight reduction in port inventory. This week, the planned arrival at the East China main port is 4.5 tons, while the planned arrival at the secondary port is concentrated at 6.5 tons [1]
化工日报：聚酯产业链跟随成本震荡下跌-20250716
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-07-16 05:05