Report Industry Investment Rating - RU is rated neutral, NR is rated neutral, and BR is rated neutral [4][5] Core Viewpoints - The warming macro - atmosphere has made futures prices stronger, and the basis of natural rubber has weakened slightly. The improvement of domestic concentrated latex import profit and the expected increase in raw material output after the end of rain may lead to an increase in domestic full - latex production. The demand for downstream products is weak, and the fundamentals of full - latex remain weak. In July, China is in the seasonal import off - season, and the loss of profit from Thai processing plants to Chinese ports is expected to reduce the import pressure. After the maintenance of downstream semi - steel tires ends, the operating rate rebounds, and the supply - demand pattern of NR improves slightly. However, due to the increase in global natural rubber supply and lackluster demand, the rebound space of rubber futures prices is limited. [4][5] - The price of upstream raw material butadiene is expected to remain firm in the short term. The supply of domestic butadiene has decreased slightly, and the port inventory has continued to decline, alleviating the supply pressure. The restart of downstream maintenance devices is beneficial to butadiene demand. Under the loss situation of butadiene rubber, the strength of the raw material end is expected to drive butadiene rubber to continue to rebound. The supply of butadiene rubber is expected to increase next week due to the reduction of maintenance devices, and the tire demand has increased month - on - month, showing a pattern of simultaneous increase in supply and demand. It is expected that butadiene rubber will follow the upstream butadiene raw material to be strong this week. [5] Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 14,395 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton from the previous day. The closing price of the NR main contract was 12,380 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton from the previous day. [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced full - latex in the Shanghai market was 14,350 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,180 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai 20 - standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,750 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The price of Indonesian 20 - standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,690 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. [1] Market Information - Import: In June 2025, China imported 599,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a year - on - year increase of 27.2%. In the first half of the year, the total import was 4.075 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 24.1%. [2] - Passenger car market: In June 2025, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.084 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 18.1% and a month - on - month increase of 7.6%. In the first half of the year, the cumulative retail sales were 10.901 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.8%. In the first half of 2025, the production and sales of passenger cars were 13.522 million and 13.531 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 13.8% and 13%. The production and sales of passenger cars in 2025 developed steadily, which supported the incremental demand of the semi - steel tire supporting market. [2] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spread: On July 15, 2025, the RU basis was - 45 yuan/ton (+15), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 215 yuan/ton (+5), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 5,863 yuan/ton (- 0.17), the NR basis was 132 yuan/ton (- 18). The price of full - latex was 14,350 yuan/ton (+50), the price of mixed rubber was 14,180 yuan/ton (+30), the price of 3L spot was 14,550 yuan/ton (unchanged). The STR20 was quoted at 1,750 US dollars/ton (+5), the spread between full - latex and 3L was - 200 yuan/ton (+50), and the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,180 yuan/ton (+30). [3] - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 65.29 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), the price of Thai glue was 54.30 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), the price of Thai cup lump was 48.20 Thai baht/kg (+0.15), and the difference between Thai glue and cup lump was 6.10 Thai baht/kg (- 0.15). [3] - Operating rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 61.11% (- 0.42%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 65.79% (+1.66%). [3] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,293,342 tons (- 248), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 636,383 tons (+4,006), the RU futures inventory was 188,690 tons (- 160), and the NR futures inventory was 36,994 tons (+7,258). [3] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spread: On July 15, 2025, the BR basis was - 85 yuan/ton (+90), the ex - factory price of butadiene of Sinopec was 9,300 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,500 yuan/ton (- 50), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,380 yuan/ton (- 70), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,014 yuan/ton (- 55). [3] - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 65.54% (- 1.44%). [3] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 6,270 tons (- 530), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,500 tons (+150). [3]
轮胎需求淡季，工厂原料采购谨慎
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-07-16 05:04