黑色建材日报：政策预期降温，钢价高位震荡-20250716

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. Core Views - The steel market is in high - level shock due to the cooling of policy expectations. The demand for steel still has resilience, and the annual production reduction target is expected to be achieved [1]. - The iron ore market shows resilient demand and is in shock operation. In the long - term, it presents a pattern of relatively loose supply and demand [3]. - The coking coal and coke market is in range - bound shock. Coke price increase has been implemented, and the profit of coking plants has improved [5][6]. - The thermal coal market is still in a short - term shock - strengthening state due to the increasing daily consumption in summer. In the medium - and long - term, the supply is in a loose pattern [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Analysis - Futures and spot: Steel futures closed down yesterday. The main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures corrected to varying degrees. Spot trading was weak overall, but the willingness to hold prices was strong, and the basis widened. The spot trading volume was 8630 tons [1]. - Supply and demand and logic: The GDP in the first half of the year was well - completed. The expectations for the Politburo meeting and the Urban Work Conference were lower than expected, and the real estate data was still under pressure. The crude steel production from January to June decreased by 3% year - on - year, and the annual production reduction target is expected to be achieved, improving the supply - demand relationship. The steel demand has resilience, and the fundamentals provide effective support [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Shock [2] - Others: No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [2] Iron Ore Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The iron ore futures price fluctuated yesterday. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties were basically stable. The trading sentiment was average, and steel mills mainly replenished stocks on demand. The total transaction volume of iron ore at major ports was 1.015 million tons, a 6.28% increase from the previous day; the total transaction volume of forward - looking spot was 1.631 million tons, a 3.49% decrease from the previous day [3]. - Supply and demand and logic: The molten iron production decreased month - on - month but remained at a relatively high level in the same period. The consumption of iron ore showed good resilience. Affected by macro - sentiment, the iron ore price rebounded in the short - term. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. Attention should be paid to the molten iron production and inventory changes during the off - season [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Shock [4] - Others: No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [4] Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The double - coking futures market continued the pattern of mixed gains and losses yesterday, showing a range - bound operation. The port inventory of imported coal was decreasing, and traders were reluctant to sell at low prices. After the Nadam Fair, the coal supply at ports is expected to gradually recover. Mainstream steel mills have accepted the first round of coke price increase, improving the coking profit [5]. - Supply and demand and logic: For coke, due to the rising raw material prices, the production cost of coking plants increased, and the supply decreased. On the demand side, driven by the premium of the futures market, the purchasing enthusiasm of traders increased, and the demand from steel mills was better than expected during the off - season. For coking coal, the supply is gradually recovering but at a limited speed. After the port opens, the supply is expected to further increase. The demand side is active, and downstream enterprises have a good enthusiasm for replenishing stocks [6]. Strategy - Coking coal: Shock [6] - Coke: Shock [6] - Others: No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [6] Thermal Coal Market Analysis - Futures and spot: In the production area, as the temperature rises, the power load increases, and the pit - mouth coal price rises steadily. Some coal mines stopped production due to waterlogging and safety inspections, and the willingness to raise prices increased, with some coal types rising by 5 - 10 yuan. At the port, the upstream shipping cost increased, there was a structural shortage of coal, and the downstream rigid - demand procurement was completed. As the high - temperature range expanded, the daily consumption increased, and the market coal price rose steadily. For imports, the price of high - calorie Australian coal was inverted compared with the domestic winning bid price, with low liquidity. The low - calorie Indonesian coal had obvious cost - performance advantages, and there were many downstream tenders [7]. - Supply and demand and logic: In July, as the temperature rises, the daily consumption increases, and the downstream demand strengthens. The coal price is still in a short - term shock - strengthening state. In the medium - and long - term, the supply is in a loose pattern. Attention should be paid to the consumption and stock - replenishment of non - power coal [7]. Strategy Not provided in the content.