宏观情绪降温，PVC盘面回调整理

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The macro - atmosphere for PVC has faded, with the futures market undergoing a corrective adjustment. The supply side has increasing pressure due to new capacity coming online, while the demand side is weak both domestically and externally, resulting in a weak supply - demand situation and expected inventory accumulation. For烧碱, although the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong has rebounded, the supply pressure remains high, and the demand side lacks obvious positive drivers, with limited room for continuous rebound [3]. Summary by Directory PVC Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 4,975 yuan/ton (- 35), the East China basis was - 115 yuan/ton (+ 35), and the South China basis was - 85 yuan/ton (+ 15) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,860 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,890 yuan/ton (- 20) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price was 535 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide price was 2,825 yuan/ton (- 25), the calcium carbide profit was 107 yuan/ton (- 25), the production gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC was - 445 yuan/ton (+ 107), the production gross profit of ethylene - based PVC was - 621 yuan/ton (+ 74), and the PVC export profit was - 12.3 US dollars/ton (+ 2.4) [1]. - Inventory and operation: The in - factory PVC inventory was 38.2 tons (- 0.5), the social PVC inventory was 39.3 tons (+ 2.0), the calcium carbide - based PVC operation rate was 76.93% (- 3.80%), the ethylene - based PVC operation rate was 70.23% (+ 4.77%), and the overall PVC operation rate was 75.07% (- 1.43%) [1]. - Downstream orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 69.0 tons (+ 3.2) [1]. Market Analysis - The macro - atmosphere has subsided, and PVC futures are in a corrective adjustment, with the market trading mainly based on fundamentals. The supply side has increasing pressure as some devices restart, the maintenance intensity weakens, and new capacity is expected to be put into production. The demand side is in the off - season domestically, with low downstream operation rates, and the export signing volume has weakened. If the Indian anti - dumping policy is implemented, it may drag down PVC exports. As a result, PVC social inventory continues to accumulate [3]. Strategy - It is recommended to cautiously short - hedge PVC. Given the weak supply - demand fundamentals, expected inventory accumulation, and room for further compression of chlor - alkali comprehensive profits, the price is expected to face downward pressure after the macro - sentiment fades [4]. Caustic Soda Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,512 yuan/ton (- 20), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 113 yuan/ton (+ 20) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 840 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1,370 yuan/ton (+ 0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,634 yuan/ton (+ 0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 690.8 yuan/ton (+ 0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 445.78 yuan/ton (+ 35.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,368.33 yuan/ton (+ 0.00) [2]. - Inventory and operation: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 37.43 tons (- 0.99), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.36 tons (+ 0.06), and the caustic soda operation rate was 80.40% (- 0.10%) [2]. - Downstream operation: The alumina operation rate was 83.28% (+ 1.72%), the dyeing operation rate in East China was 58.89% (- 1.36%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate was 77.80% (+ 2.63%) [2]. Market Analysis - The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong has stabilized and rebounded, and the price of liquid caustic soda has remained stable. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali has recovered, and upstream enterprises that previously reduced production due to high liquid chlorine subsidies have gradually increased their loads. The supply is expected to remain high, and there is still supply pressure with new capacity expected to be put into production from July to August. On the demand side, the alumina price has risen, and the operation rate has increased but is still low year - on - year. Non - aluminum demand is still weak, but the caustic soda export signing volume is good. Although the spot price in Shandong has increased and the factory inventory has decreased, there is a lack of obvious positive drivers in the supply - demand fundamentals, and the room for continuous rebound is limited [3]. Strategy - Maintain a neutral view on caustic soda. The rebound of liquid chlorine price suppresses the upward movement of caustic soda. The supply - demand fundamentals lack obvious positive drivers, and there is still room for compression of chlor - alkali comprehensive profits, with limited room for continuous rebound [4].