原油日报：特朗普威胁制裁俄罗斯，API原油库存小幅增加-20250716

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [4] Core View - The threat of sanctions on Russia by Trump is likely to remain at the verbal stage, and the sanctions are not expected to be implemented due to concerns about a significant increase in oil prices and inflation [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 46 cents to $66.52 per barrel, a decrease of 0.69%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for September delivery in London dropped 50 cents to $68.71 per barrel, a decline of 0.72%. The main contract of SC crude oil closed down 1.26% at 516 yuan per barrel [1] - The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending July 11 was 839,000 barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 1.637 million barrels and a previous value of 7.128 million barrels [2] - The OPEC monthly report maintained the global crude oil demand growth forecast at 1.29 million barrels per day for 2025 and 1.28 million barrels per day for 2026 [2] - The market's reaction to the US threat of sanctions on Russia was muted. Given the uncertainty of Trump's tariff and sanction strategies, "saw - tooth" price fluctuations may continue for the rest of the month [2] - The US Energy Secretary is considering innovative trading plans to replenish the oil reserve and may withdraw from the IEA if it does not reform its forecasting methods [2] Investment Logic - If the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire reaches a deadlock after 50 days, the US may impose secondary tariffs on countries purchasing Russian oil. However, due to concerns about a sharp rise in oil prices and inflation, the sanctions are likely to remain a verbal threat [3] Strategy - The short - term oil price will fluctuate within a range, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [4] Risk - Downside risks include the US relaxing sanctions on Iranian oil and macro black - swan events [4] - Upside risks include the US increasing sanctions on Russian oil and large - scale supply disruptions caused by Middle East conflicts [4]