美国6月CPI数据创2月以来新高

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] 2) Core Views of the Report - The market is concerned about the impact of Trump's tariff policy on inflation. Although the current US inflation level remains low due to relatively low energy prices and weak domestic consumer confidence, the inflation data released yesterday has started to rebound. If the tariff factor continues to affect the market in the future, the situation will become more variable. In addition, although Fed officials have differences on the future interest rate path, a rate cut is still a high-probability event. Therefore, it is recommended to mainly buy gold on dips for hedging [8]. - The current silver price is strong, the gold-silver ratio has been repaired, and the silver price itself has reached a new high again. This is also due to the spillover effect of Trump's claim to impose tariffs on copper on the Comex silver price. For now, it is also recommended to mainly buy silver on dips for hedging [9]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Economic Data - US June overall CPI annual rate rose to 2.7%, the highest since February, in line with market expectations; monthly rate was 0.3%, the highest since January, in line with market expectations. Core CPI annual rate rose to 2.9%, the highest since February, slightly lower than the expected 3%, but slightly up from last month's 2.8%. Interest rate futures still show that the possibility of a Fed rate cut this month is extremely small, but the possibility of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September is high [1]. - The US reached a trade agreement with Indonesia, imposing a 19% tariff on Indonesian goods exported to the US, while US exports to Indonesia will enjoy duty-free and non-tariff barrier treatment. If goods are transshipped from Indonesia, the tariffs will be superimposed with the tariffs of the country of origin [1]. Futures Market - On July 15, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 777.00 yuan/gram and closed at 780.40 yuan/gram, a change of -0.13% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 778.00 yuan/gram and closed at 774.92 yuan/gram, down 0.42% from the afternoon close [2]. - On July 15, 2025, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 9,178.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,225.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of 0.20% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 735,125 lots, and the open interest was 450,115 lots. In the night session, it opened at 9,195 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,160 yuan/kilogram, down 0.26% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yields and Spreads - On July 15, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.43%, a change of 0.08% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries was 5%, up 2 basis points from the previous trading day [3]. Position and Volume Changes on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2508 contract, the long positions changed by -3,203 lots compared with the previous day, and the short positions changed by -2,141 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract on the previous trading day was 288,377 lots, a change of -12.87% from the previous trading day [4]. - On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions changed by -7,084 lots, and the short positions changed by -3,649 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 990,765 lots, a change of -36.83% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Holdings - The gold ETF holdings were 947.64 tons yesterday, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 14,856.02 tons, down 110.22 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage - On July 15, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was 8.65 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -706.80 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 84.60, a change of -0.32% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 86.24, a change of -1.54% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamental Data - On July 15, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 30,068 kilograms, a change of -21.20% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 489,788 kilograms, a change of -51.85% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 14,166 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 24,420 kilograms [7].