新能源及有色金属日报：近月仓单博弈较大，碳酸锂盘面振幅加剧-20250716

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints - The cancellation of warehouse receipts is significant, and there is some speculation in the near - month contracts. After the futures market has been at a premium to the spot market for a certain period, the willingness to register warehouse receipts may increase. Short - term, it is advisable to wait and see for near - month contracts and look for opportunities to sell and hedge at high prices for far - month contracts [2]. - In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see for single - sided trading, and choose to sell and hedge at high prices for far - month contracts. There are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On July 15, 2025, the main contract 2509 of lithium carbonate opened at 66,140 yuan/ton and closed at 66,660 yuan/ton, a 0.21% increase from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 764,028 lots, and the open interest was 342,146 lots, a decrease of 14,015 lots from the previous day. The total open interest of all contracts was 622,936 lots, a decrease of 12,117 lots from the previous day. The total trading volume of contracts decreased by 303,785 lots from the previous day to 926,362 lots, with an overall speculation degree of 1.49. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 11,203 lots, a decrease of 1 lot from the previous day [1]. - According to SMM data, on July 15, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 63,800 - 66,000 yuan/ton, a 250 - yuan increase from the previous day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 62,800 - 63,800 yuan/ton, also a 250 - yuan increase. Downstream enterprises have low acceptance of current market prices due to factors such as long - term contract coverage and high customer - supplied ratios, and procurement demand remains weak. Although upstream lithium salt enterprises have made tentative price adjustments, transactions are mainly concentrated among traders [1]. Strategy - Wait and see for near - month contracts in the short term and look for opportunities to sell and hedge at high prices for far - month contracts [2][4].