FICC日报：马士基WEEK31周运价沿用，马士基8月份新增两艘加班船-20250716

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of container shipping index futures for European routes fluctuates. The recommended strategy is to go long on the December contract and short on the October contract, and short the October contract on rallies [7]. - The August contract price of container shipping is in a high - level oscillation, with a game around delivery. The CMA still has an expectation to support prices in August. The October contract is mainly for short - allocation in the off - season, and the focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate. The December contract follows the pattern of peak and off - seasons, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen [3][4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Analysis - Online quotes: Different shipping companies have different quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route. For example, Maersk's price for WEEK31 from Shanghai to Rotterdam is 1855/3110, while HPL's quotes for the second half of July and the first half of August are 2035/3335 and 2235/3535 respectively [1]. - Geopolitical situation: The Yemeni Houthi rebels launched a military operation with three drones against two locations in Israel on the 15th, and they will continue military actions until Israel stops the aggression against Gaza and lifts the blockade [2]. - Shipping capacity: The average weekly shipping capacity from China to European base ports in the remaining three weeks of July is 303,500 TEU, and the monthly average weekly shipping capacity in August is 310,000 TEU. There are 5 blank sailings in July and 2 in August. Maersk will add two extra - sailing vessels in August, with a total capacity of about 29,000 TEU [2]. 3.2 Contract Analysis - August contract: The freight rate is in a high - level oscillation, with a game around delivery. The CMA still has an expectation to support prices in August. The estimated SCFIS from July 21st to July 28th is between 2300 - 2400 points. Historically, the freight rate from Shanghai to European base ports generally peaks around WEEK34 [3]. - October contract: It is mainly for short - allocation in the off - season, and the focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate. Normally, the price in October is 20% - 30% lower than that in August [4]. - December contract: The peak - off - season pattern still exists, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen. Usually, the price in December is more than 10% higher than that in October [4]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: As of July 15, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index futures for European routes is 85,457 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 159,135 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are provided, such as EC2602 at 1516.40, EC2604 at 1319.00, etc. [5]. - Spot prices: On July 11, the SCFI for the Shanghai - Europe route was 2099.00 US dollars/TEU, for the Shanghai - US West route was 2194.00 US dollars/FEU, and for the Shanghai - US East route was 4172.00 US dollars/FEU. On July 14, the SCFIS for the Shanghai - Europe route was 2421.94 points, and for the Shanghai - US West route was 1266.59 points [6]. 3.4 Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of July 11, 2025, 141 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.194 million TEU. Among them, 46 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 689,300 TEU, and 7 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 159,880 TEU [6]. 3.5 Strategy - Unilateral: The main contract fluctuates. - Arbitrage: Go long on the December contract and short on the October contract, and short the October contract on rallies [7].