尿素日报：农需较为分散，工业需求偏弱-20250716

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; No recommendation for inter - period; For inter - variety, short the coal - based production profit at high prices [3] Core View - In mid - and early July, the second batch of urea export quotas was gradually confirmed to be less than the first batch. Currently, the export quotas have not started to circulate. It is the peak agricultural demand season, with scattered agricultural demand. The compound fertilizer industry's demand for urea is increasing, while industrial demand is weak. Urea production remains high, port inventory is rising, and upstream factory inventory is falling [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - Information on Shandong and Henan urea small - particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main - continuous basis, urea main continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread is presented, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [8][9][14] 2. Urea Output - The report shows the urea weekly output and urea device maintenance loss volume, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [16] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - It includes information on production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [15][16][25] 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - Data on urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, and the differences between them, as well as urea export profit and disk export profit are provided, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [22][28][37] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - The report presents the compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and urea enterprise advance order days, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [43][38] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Information on upstream factory inventory, port inventory, Hebei urea downstream factory raw material inventory days, futures warehouse receipts, main contract holding volume, and main contract trading volume is shown, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [41][44][47] Market Analysis Price and Basis - On July 15, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1,731 yuan/ton (- 33). Henan small - particle ex - factory price was 1,830 yuan/ton (0), Shandong small - particle price was 1,810 yuan/ton (- 10), and Jiangsu small - particle price was 1,820 yuan/ton (- 20). Small - block anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (+ 0). Shandong basis was 79 yuan/ton (+ 23), Henan basis was 99 yuan/ton (+ 23), and Jiangsu basis was 89 yuan/ton (+ 13). Urea production profit was 280 yuan/ton (- 10), and export profit was 899 yuan/ton (+ 20) [1] Supply Side - As of July 15, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 85.27% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 96.77 million tons (- 5.08), and the port sample inventory was 48.50 million tons (+ 4.80) [1] Demand Side - As of July 15, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 29.83% (+ 0.58%), the melamine capacity utilization rate was 62.56% (- 0.43%), and the urea enterprise advance order days were 5.94 days (+ 0.58) [1]