Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint On July 15, industrial silicon and polysilicon both showed a volatile and upward - trending pattern. The main contract of industrial silicon 2509 closed at 8785 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 2.81%, and its position decreased by 6237 lots to 4397000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan industrial silicon spot was 9111 yuan/ton, an increase of 173 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 rose to 8500 yuan/ton, and the spot shifted from premium to discount of 60 yuan/ton. The main contract of polysilicon 2508 closed at 42470 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 2.78%, and its position decreased by 6237 lots to 69821 lots. The price of N - type recycled polysilicon material rose to 44550 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material rose to 43500 yuan/ton. The spot premium over the main contract narrowed to 1030 yuan/ton. Market news indicated that Xinjiang might cancel the subsidized electricity price and large - scale plants' shut - down capacities would not restart, leading to continuous price recovery of industrial silicon due to cost increase. However, there were many disagreements in the market, with limited overall transmission and high difficulty in continuous upward surges. It was advisable to continue short - selling at the upper limit of the range. Guided by policies, the confidence of the photovoltaic industry chain in price support increased, but the terminal demand had not improved, and market transactions were almost at a standstill. Futures followed the spot price and were more driven by speculative demand. In the short term, there were a lot of true and false news in the market, with increased volatility of the disk and higher risks of chasing up [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Industrial Silicon: The futures settlement prices of the main and near - month contracts increased by 220 yuan/ton and 695 yuan/ton respectively. The spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon generally increased, with the price increase of different grades ranging from 50 - 200 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price rose by 200 yuan/ton, and the spot premium shifted to a discount of 60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 495 yuan/ton [4]. - Polysilicon: The futures settlement prices of the main and near - month contracts both increased by 705 yuan/ton. Most of the spot prices remained unchanged, and the current lowest deliverable price stayed the same. The spot premium decreased by 705 yuan/ton to 1030 yuan/ton [4]. - Organic Silicon: The price of DMC in the East China market, raw rubber, and 107 glue remained unchanged, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2000 yuan/ton [4]. - Downstream Products: The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells remained unchanged. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts increased by 168, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 7360 tons. The total industrial silicon social inventory decreased by 4800 tons. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory was flat, and the total polysilicon social inventory increased by 0.3 million tons [4]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices: The report presented charts on the prices of various grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][10]. - Downstream Product Prices: Charts showed the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][16][18]. - Inventory: Charts included the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [21][24]. - Cost and Profit: Charts presented the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [27][29][35]. 4. Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily & Securities Times. He has more than ten years of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. His team has won the awards of the 16th and 15th best non - ferrous metal industry futures research teams of Futures Daily & Securities Times and the title of excellent non - ferrous metal industry team of the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2016 [37]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research [37]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel [38].
光大期货工业硅日报-20250716
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-07-16 05:15