6月数据跟踪：粗钢产量“数字”回落

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Overweight" for the steel industry [3] Core Insights - In June 2025, crude steel production decreased by 9.2% year-on-year, indicating a reduction in production intensity among steel mills, although the reliability of this data is questioned [1] - The black metal smelting and rolling processing industry reported a revenue of 31,364.5 billion yuan from January to May, down 7.0% year-on-year, while total profits turned positive at 316.9 billion yuan [1] - The report highlights strong growth in both domestic and external demand, with net steel exports increasing by 10.7% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [2] - The report anticipates that the "anti-involution" policy may lead to a significant reduction in steel production, although the actual impact remains to be observed [1][7] Summary by Sections Production Data - In June 2025, crude steel production was 83.18 million tons, a 9.2% decrease year-on-year, with an average daily production of 2.773 million tons [5] - The production of pig iron in June was 71.91 million tons, down 4.1% year-on-year [5] - Steel production in June was 127.84 million tons, an increase of 1.8% year-on-year [5] Export and Import Data - In the first half of 2025, steel exports reached 5.512 million tons, a 10.7% increase year-on-year [2] - Steel imports in June were 470,000 tons, a decrease of 18.3% year-on-year [5] - Iron ore imports in June were 105.95 million tons, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year [5] Economic Context - The report notes that the general public budget deficit for 2025 is projected at 4%, with local government special bonds expected to reach 4.4 trillion yuan [2] - The fiscal policy is expected to play a crucial role in sustaining economic recovery, with significant investments in various sectors [2][6] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends buying shares of companies such as Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, Baosteel, and others, citing their undervaluation and potential for recovery [7][9] - The report emphasizes the importance of administrative measures to cut back on supply to accelerate industry profitability [7]