中国6月经济数据分化，关注美国6月PPI数据

Report Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - China's economic data in June showed differentiation, with the GDP in the first half of the year growing by 5.3% year-on-year, higher than the annual target. However, the foundation for economic stabilization needs to be consolidated. The central bank's large - scale reverse repurchase operation signals stable liquidity, and "anti - involution" policy expectations in some industries are rising. Attention should also be paid to the possible further stimulus policies from the Politburo meeting in July [2][7]. - The passage of the "Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill in the US marks a shift to a "loose - prone" policy stage. Tariff issues may impact demand expectations, and there is a high probability of a Fed rate cut in September [3]. - Different commodity sectors have different fundamentals. The black and new - energy metal sectors are sensitive to domestic supply - side factors, while the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit from overseas inflation expectations. Currently, the commodity fundamentals are weak, and price volatility may remain high [4]. - The strategy for commodities and stock index futures is to allocate more industrial products on dips [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - China's economic data in May was mixed. Investment and export were under pressure, while consumption showed resilience. In June, the manufacturing PMI rebounded, and the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.8% year - on - year. However, the growth rate of social retail sales slowed down, and overall fixed - asset investment weakened. The central bank carried out a 1.4 - trillion - yuan reverse repurchase operation, and "anti - involution" policy expectations in some industries are rising [2]. - The US "Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill may increase government debt by $3.4 trillion in the next decade. The Fed may face inflation pressure from tariffs, and there is a high probability of a rate cut in September. Trump has accelerated the implementation of tariffs, and attention should be paid to the impact on demand expectations [3]. Commodity Analysis - The black sector is dragged down by downstream demand expectations, the supply constraint in the non - ferrous sector remains unrelieved, the short - term geopolitical premium in the energy sector has ended, and the medium - term supply is expected to be relatively loose. OPEC + will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August. The short - term fluctuation of agricultural products is limited [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate more industrial products on dips [5]. Key News - China's GDP in the first half of the year was 66.0536 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 5.3%. In June, the social retail sales were 422.87 billion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 4.8%. The fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) in the first half of the year increased by 2.8% year - on - year. The industrial added value of large - scale industries in June increased by 6.8% year - on - year [7]. - The US Treasury Secretary mentioned the selection process of the Fed Chairman. The US inflation data in June was released, and there is a high probability of a rate cut in September. The EU has determined a counter - measure list for US goods worth 72 billion euros. OPEC has maintained its global crude oil demand growth forecast [3][6][7].