工业硅现货价格上涨，期货盘面有一定正反馈

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For the industrial silicon market, the short - term supply - demand fundamentals have improved due to production cuts by large northwest manufacturers and lower - than - usual southwest operations. The futures market has rebounded, and the spot price has strengthened. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and short positions need to pay attention to stop - loss or use options for protection [1][2]. - For the polysilicon market, the recent spot transactions have seen higher prices after a significant increase in the spot quotation. Policy disturbances in the photovoltaic industry are numerous, and the market fluctuates greatly. Participants need to pay attention to risk management. In the long - term, it is suitable to buy on dips [3][6]. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On July 15, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price rose significantly. The main contract 2509 opened at 8,645 yuan/ton and closed at 8,785 yuan/ton, a change of 240 yuan/ton (2.81%) from the previous settlement. The main contract 2509 had a position of 396,653 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,258 lots, a change of 168 lots from the previous day [1]. - The industrial silicon spot price increased. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,100 - 9,200 yuan/ton (up 150 yuan/ton); 421 silicon was 9,400 - 9,600 yuan/ton (up 200 yuan/ton). The price of Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,600 - 8,700 yuan/ton (up 200 yuan/ton), and 99 silicon was 8,500 - 8,600 yuan/ton (up 200 yuan/ton) [1]. - The overall silicon - coal market remained stable, and the raw material cost for silicon plants had no recent changes. However, if the coking coal spot price rises, the silicon - coal price is expected to follow [1]. - The organic silicon DMC was quoted at 10,600 - 11,000 yuan/ton. Affected by the continuous rise of the industrial silicon market, the cost of DMC increased, leading to a slight price increase [1]. Polysilicon - On July 15, 2025, the polysilicon futures main contract 2508 continued to rise, opening at 41,500 yuan/ton and closing at 42,470 yuan/ton, a 2.78% change from the previous trading day. The main contract's position was 69,821 lots (78,328 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 565,746 lots [3]. - The polysilicon spot price remained stable. The re -投料 was quoted at 32.00 - 33.00 yuan/kg; dense material was 30.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg; cauliflower material was 28.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg; granular silicon was 30.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, N - type material was 42.00 - 49.00 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 41.00 - 45.00 yuan/kg (down 0.50 yuan/kg) [3]. - Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory increased slightly, with a 1.40% change, while silicon wafer inventory decreased by 5.70% to 18.13GW. The weekly polysilicon production was 22,800.00 tons, a - 5.00% change, and the silicon wafer production was 11.50GW, a - 3.37% change [3][4]. Silicon Wafers, Battery Cells, and Components - Silicon wafers: The domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafer was 1.00 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.35 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafer was 1.15 yuan/piece [4]. - Battery cells: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W; PERC210 was about 0.28 yuan/W; TopconM10 was about 0.24 yuan/W; Topcon G12 was 0.26 yuan/W; Topcon210RN was 0.25 yuan/W; HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 yuan/W [4]. - Components: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.68 yuan/W [4]. - The market views and price - adjustment trends of the Top5 component manufacturers were divided. Some leading component companies had raised the distributed guidance price from 0.65 yuan/W to a maximum of 0.7 yuan/W, with an expected increase for centralized projects. Some leading companies were waiting and watching [5]. Strategy Industrial Silicon - Short - term: Wait and see; short positions need to pay attention to stop - loss or use options for protection - Cross - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Futures - spot: None - Options: None [2] Polysilicon - Short - term: Pay attention to risks - Cross - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Futures - spot: None - Options: None - Long - term: Suitable to buy on dips [6]