Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategies for both the soybean meal and corn sectors are cautiously bearish [4][6] Core Viewpoints - The adjustment of the supply - demand report is minor and in line with market expectations. The weather in the main soybean - producing areas in the US is favorable, and the soybean growth is expected to remain good. In China, there is still pressure on the spot market, and future focus should be on the growth of new - season US soybeans and policy changes [3] - In the domestic corn market, there is an increase in supply, a lackluster demand, and changes in the market atmosphere due to import auctions [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market News and Important Data - Soybean Meal - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 2978 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton (-0.47%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2655 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.15%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 2910 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2810 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2790 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton). In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2660 yuan/ton [1] - US Data: As of July 13, the US soybean good - excellent rate was 70%, the flowering rate was 47%, and the pod - setting rate was 15%. As of July 10, the US soybean export inspection volume was 14.70 tons. The 2024/25 US soybean export inspection volume was 4641 tons, a 10.4% year - on - year increase, reaching 91.4% of the annual export target [2] 2. Market News and Important Data - Corn - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2295 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (-0.30%); the corn starch 2509 contract was 2641 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (-0.23%) [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2740 yuan/ton [4] - US Data: As of July 13, the US corn good - excellent rate was 74%, the silking rate was 34%, and the wax - ripening rate was 7%. As of July 10, the US corn export inspection volume was 128.7 tons [4] 3. Market Analysis - Soybean Meal - The supply - demand report adjustment is small, in line with expectations. The US soybean good - excellent rate is high, and the weather is favorable. In China, there is spot pressure, and the soybean meal inventory is rising rapidly [3] 4. Market Analysis - Corn - In China, the supply of corn increases due to auctions and storage issues. The demand is weak as feed enterprises have sufficient inventory and the breeding season is off - peak. Import auctions show a change in market sentiment [5] 5. Strategy - For both soybean meal and corn, the strategy is cautiously bearish [4][6]
现货涨跌互现,豆粕偏弱震荡
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-07-16 05:19