Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to experience volatile consolidation. The decline in real - estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing investment data has affected market sentiment, and short - term steel prices are likely to fluctuate [1]. - The iron ore market is expected to remain in high - level volatility. Although the global iron ore shipment volume has slightly decreased, and the demand for iron ore has also declined, the inventory at ports has decreased, and attention should be paid to the steel demand during the off - season [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are expected to show a volatile trend. The resumption of coal mine production and the change in the urbanization stage have affected market expectations, and the short - term prices are likely to fluctuate [1]. - The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are expected to be volatile. Although the cost and steel tender prices have some support, the overall fundamental driving force is limited, and the upward space is limited [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - Steel: The rebar futures price declined slightly, and the spot price also decreased. The investment data of real - estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing from January to June weakened, and the short - term rebar futures price is expected to oscillate and consolidate [1]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore futures price rose slightly, and the port spot price showed mixed trends. The global iron ore shipment volume decreased slightly, and the demand for iron ore declined. It is expected that the ore price will continue to fluctuate at a high level [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures price declined, and the spot price in some areas increased. With the resumption of coal mine production and the change in urbanization stage, the short - term coking coal futures price is expected to oscillate [1]. - Coke: The coke futures price declined, and the spot price remained stable. The price increase of coke was lower than expected, and the terminal demand increment expectation was disappointed. The short - term coke futures price is expected to oscillate [1]. - Manganese Silicon: The manganese silicon futures price oscillated and strengthened. The cost support increased, and the steel tender price was higher than expected. However, the supply - demand pattern was relatively loose, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures price oscillated and strengthened. The steel tender price increased, but the supply - demand was at a low level, and the inventory was at a high level. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spread: The contract spreads of various varieties showed different changes, such as the 10 - 1 spread of rebar decreased by 14.0, and the 9 - 1 spread of iron ore decreased by 1.5 [4]. - Basis: The basis of various varieties also changed. For example, the basis of the 10 - contract of rebar increased by 14.0, and the basis of the 09 - contract of iron ore increased by 0.6 [4]. - Spot Price: The spot prices of various varieties changed differently. For example, the spot price of Shanghai rebar decreased by 10.0, and the spot price of PB powder in Qingdao Port remained unchanged [4]. - Profit and Spread: The profit and spread of various varieties also changed. For example, the rebar futures profit decreased by 19.3, and the coil - rebar spread increased by 7.0 [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - 3.1 Main Contract Price: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][8][10][11][14][17]. - 3.2 Main Contract Basis: The report shows the basis charts of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [19][20][23][25]. - 3.3 Inter - period Contract Spread: The report provides the inter - period contract spread charts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [27][32][33][36]. - 3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spread: The report includes the inter - variety contract spread charts of the main contracts, such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coke - ore ratio, coal - coke ratio, and double - silicon spread [40][42][44]. - 3.5 Rebar Profit: The report shows the profit charts of the rebar main contract, including the futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [46][50]. 4. Black Research Team Member Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: The current assistant director of the Everbright Futures Research Institute and the director of the black research department, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [52]. - Zhang Xiaojin: The current director of the resource product research department of the Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the field of black industry chain research [52]. - Liu Xi: A black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [52]. - Zhang Chunjie: A black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures combination [53].
黑色商品日报-20250716
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-07-16 05:23