光大期货碳酸锂日报-20250716

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 15, 2025, the lithium carbonate futures 2509 contract rose 0.21% to 66,660 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 250 yuan/ton to 64,900 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose 250 yuan/ton to 63,300 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) remained at 57,420 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 1 ton to 11,203 tons [3]. - In July, the production is expected to increase by 3.9% month - on - month to 81,150 tons, and the weekly production increased by 690 tons to 18,813 tons. The increase is mainly from lithium extraction from spodumene, followed by lithium extraction from mica. In terms of imports, lithium salt exports from Chile were basically flat from May to June, and the overall imports of lithium carbonate in July are expected to change little month - on - month. In July, the production schedule increased slightly month - on - month, and the consumption of lithium carbonate by the two major main materials increased by 3% month - on - month to about 80,800 tons. The weekly inventory increased by 2,446 tons to 140,793 tons, with a significant increase in the intermediate links [3]. - Market sentiment is affected by news speculation. Warehouse receipts remain at a low level, the transaction price of lithium ore has increased, lithium salt plants have announced shutdowns for maintenance and technological transformation, and there are many disturbances in market news, which short - term stimulate price increases. However, hedging pressure will follow. As of now, there are no signs of production cuts at the mine end, and the social inventory of lithium ore and lithium salt is high. Short - selling opportunities after the sentiment turns can still be considered. If the warehouse receipt inventory remains at a low level, it may hinder the smooth price correction [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 66,660 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 66,860 yuan/ton, up 660 yuan [5]. - Lithium Ore: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 681 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 890 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1450 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 4605 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 5450 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [5]. - Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) was 64,900 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) was 63,300 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 57,420 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 62,570 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 51,970 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan and South Korea) was 8 US dollars/kg, unchanged [5]. - Lithium Hexafluorophosphate: The price was 49,900 yuan/ton, down 650 yuan [5]. - Price Spreads: The price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 1600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was - 7480 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; the difference between CIF China, Japan and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide was - 221.6 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan [5]. - Precursors and Cathode Materials: The price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/power type) was 75,275 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the price of ternary precursor 523 (single - crystal/consumer type) was 75,710 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the price of ternary precursor 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 71,340 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the price of ternary precursor 811 (polycrystalline/power type) was 89,445 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan; the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 106,270 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) was 115,165 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 110,970 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of ternary material 811 (power type) was 142,630 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; the price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 31,330 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the price of lithium iron phosphate (mid - to - high - end energy storage) was 29,905 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the price of lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy storage) was 27,650 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the price of lithium manganate (power type) was 32,500 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the price of lithium manganate (capacity type) was 29,500 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the price of cobalt acid lithium (60%, 4.35V/domestic) was 220,400 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. - Cells and Batteries: The price of 523 square ternary cells was 0.383 yuan/Wh, unchanged; the price of 523 soft - pack ternary cells was 0.4 yuan/Wh, unchanged; the price of 523 cylindrical ternary batteries was 4.31 yuan/piece, up 0.01 yuan; the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells was 0.321 yuan/Wh, unchanged; the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells (small power type) was 0.33 yuan/Wh, unchanged; the price of cobalt acid lithium cells was 5.52 yuan/Ah, up 0.01 yuan; the price of square lithium iron phosphate batteries was 0.3 yuan/Wh, up 0.001 yuan [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Ore Prices: Charts show the price trends of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices: Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [12][14][16]. - Price Spreads: Charts present the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF Asia) and domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate, and the basis from 2024 to 2025 [19][20][21]. - Precursors and Cathode Materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [23][26][29]. - Lithium Battery Prices: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [32][34]. - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from November 2024 to July 2025 [37][39]. - Production Costs: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉 (Li: 5.5% - 6.5%),外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉 (Li: 3.2% - 4.2%),外购锂云母精矿 (Li₂O: 2.5%), and外购锂辉石精矿 (Li₂O: 6%) from 2024 to 2025 [41][42].