全球大豆供应宽松，油脂震荡调整

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [3] 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The global soybean supply is abundant, and the prices of the three major oils are fluctuating. Brazil's soybean harvest is confirmed, the weather in US soybean - growing areas is favorable with a high good - rate, and the future weather risk is low, leading to a strong overall harvest expectation. The supply side will gradually face pressure [2] 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - Futures Prices: The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8708.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan or 0.46% compared to the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 8012.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 18.00 yuan or 0.23%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9404.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.00 yuan or 0.21% [1] - Spot Prices: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8740.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30.00 yuan or 0.34%, with a spot basis of P09 + 32.00, an increase of 10.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8160.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 20.00 yuan/ton or 0.25%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 148.00, an increase of 2.00 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9520.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30.00 yuan or 0.31%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 116.00, a decrease of 10.00 yuan [1] - Market News: As of July 13, the EU's 2025/26 soybean imports were 340,597 tons, compared to 495,953 tons in the same period last year; the EU's 2025/26 palm oil imports were 63,393 tons, compared to 116,181 tons in the same period last year. From July 1 - 15, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 621,770 tons (ITS data), a 6.16% decrease from the same period last month, and 574,121 tons (Amspec data), a 5.29% decrease from the same period last month. As of July 15, the national soybean oil port inventory was 932,000 tons, a 24,000 - ton increase from the previous week; as of July 14, the national imported soybean port inventory was 646,277 tons, a 9,908 - ton increase from July 7 [2] Strategy - The strategy is to maintain a neutral stance [3]