事件驱动再次抬头与应对

Report Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - Market event-driven characteristics are rising, increasing potential asset volatility. Key macro events include Trump's tariff remarks, potential early departure of Powell, escalating uncertainty in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and domestic policy expectations [1][2]. - In response, it's advisable to rely on high - odds opportunities from macro events for left - hand reversal trading, seek high - probability opportunities based on fundamental trends, and diversify asset allocation from a macro - risk perspective [1][2]. Summary by Directory Current Market Influencing Events - Trump's Tariff Remarks: Trump proposed additional reciprocal tariffs, planning 30% tariffs on Mexico and the EU, and 25% - 40% on Japan and South Korea. The market's reaction is relatively calm under the TACO expectation, but the probability of final tariff implementation is not low [9][10]. - Fed Independence Challenge: Powell's early departure is a potential black swan event. If it occurs, it may lead to a rapid steepening of US Treasury yields and a significant decline in the US dollar. Trump may appoint more dovish candidates, increasing inflation and long - term interest rate risks [13]. - Russia - Ukraine Conflict: The uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine conflict is rising, but the market's sensitivity to geopolitical disturbances has decreased significantly. However, if oil prices remain high for a long time, it may bring a "stagflation" shock to the global economy [17]. - Domestic Policy Expectations: The market focuses on the implementation of policies such as "anti - involution" and "urban renewal", and upcoming events include the July domestic important meeting and the China - EU Summit [20]. Market Condition Assessment - Domestic: The summer travel boom remains resilient, real - estate transactions are differentiated, "anti - involution" supports black - commodity prices, and external demand has declined. Monetary policy focuses on short - term liquidity management, and fiscal policy involves special treasury bond issuance, employment stability, and pension adjustment. Real - estate policies continue to boost demand [3][45]. - US: The labor market remains resilient, consumption is marginally improving, tariff disturbances are increasing, and the expectation of Fed rate cuts is decreasing [3][46]. Allocation Recommendations - Domestic Bonds: Support factors for the domestic bond market remain. The market is more sensitive to monetary policy and capital flows. Interest - rate bonds can be traded in bands, and 7 - and 10 - year bonds can be bought on significant adjustments [41]. - Domestic Stocks: The next policy focus is the July important meeting, and the earnings disclosure period is approaching. Investors are advised to strengthen trading thinking to prevent fluctuations [42]. - US Treasury Bonds: There are many short - term disturbances. It is recommended to start buying 10 - year US Treasury bonds around a 4.5% yield [42]. - US Stocks: As the earnings period approaches, the focus shifts to corporate earnings. The short - term trend may be volatile and differentiated [43]. - Commodities: Gold is still in an upward trend, with short - term volatile and strong performance. The price of black - commodity is affected by "anti - involution" policies, and the short - term uncertainty of oil prices is high [44]. Follow - up Concerns - Domestic: LPR quotes [5][60]. - Overseas: US June PPI monthly rate, industrial production monthly rate, retail monthly rate, Fed's economic situation Beige Book, Eurozone June CPI monthly rate, May trade balance and current account, and UK June employment data [5][61].