“反内卷”的预期与推进

Group 1: Economic Context - Supply-side structural adjustments can optimize resource allocation efficiency and accelerate industrial restructuring, but may impact production, employment, and growth in the short term, necessitating demand expansion policies for stable economic operation[2] - Compared to 2016, the current economic uncertainty in China is greater, and the space for demand expansion policies may be weaker, testing local government strategic resolve[2] Group 2: Industry Observations - The "anti-involution" policy expectations are rising in key industries such as photovoltaic, steel, and automotive, but current measures are primarily self-regulatory and lack accompanying demand expansion policies[2] - In the automotive industry, self-regulatory measures include controlling supplier payment terms to avoid price competition, with a unified payment period of 60 days established by 17 major car manufacturers[14] - The photovoltaic industry is primarily relying on self-regulation, with a planned production cut of 30% expected from leading companies starting in July, reducing glass supply to approximately 45 GW[18][25] Group 3: Market Trends - Asset prices are currently in a policy expectation-driven pricing phase, with potential recovery in equity markets if economic conditions remain stable, possibly lasting around 2 months[3] - The steel industry is expected to see a significant reduction in production capacity, with a target of 50 million tons for the second half of the year, aiming for a 6% year-on-year decrease in crude steel output[31] - Historical data from the 2016-2017 supply-side structural reform indicates that asset prices may rise significantly during similar policy-driven phases, with coal prices increasing by 93.52% during that period[34]