银河期货每日早盘观察-20250716

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The international soybean market is generally in a state of loose supply and demand, with the domestic soybean market showing obvious inventory accumulation characteristics [4]. - Raw sugar is expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to global supply - demand expectations and potential buying support, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the raw sugar price passively [10]. - After continuous increases, the upward momentum of oils and fats has weakened, and they may experience a short - term shock and decline [17]. - The CBOT corn futures are rising, and the domestic corn market is expected to have limited downside space, with the spot market being relatively weak in the short - term and the futures market oscillating at the bottom [23][25]. - The pig price is expected to fluctuate as the supply side remains relatively stable [29]. - Peanuts are expected to have a short - term narrow - range shock, but there is a potential for a medium - to - long - term decline due to the expected increase in planting area [33]. - Egg prices are expected to strengthen seasonally, and the September contract is expected to rise after reaching the bottom [41]. - Apples are expected to have a short - term oscillating trend due to low supply and weak demand before the new - season apples are on the market [44]. - Cotton is expected to have limited upward space in the short - term, with the market influenced by factors such as potential quota issuance and trade - tariff uncertainties [50]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean/M粕类 - 外盘情况: CBOT soybean index fell 0.47% to 1009.24 cents per bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index rose 0.07% to $278.1 per short ton [2]. - 相关资讯: Brazil's July soybean export forecast is 12.19 million tons, and soybean meal export forecast is 225,000 tons. The US June 2025 soybean crush was 185.709 million bushels. As of July 10, US soybean export inspection was 147,000 tons. As of July 11, the actual soybean crush of oil mills was 2.2954 million tons, with an operating rate of 64.52% [2][3]. - 逻辑分析: The international soybean market has loose supply and demand. The US new - crop soybean export is slow, and Brazil and Argentina have high production with export pressure. The domestic soybean market has high arrivals and crush, showing inventory accumulation [4]. - 策略建议: Close previous long positions and wait and see; enter a small - scale RM91 reverse spread; wait and see for options [6]. Sugar - 外盘情况: ICE US sugar rose, with the main contract rising 0.26 (1.60%) to 16.56 cents per pound [7]. - 重要咨讯: In the second half of June 2025, Brazil's central - southern region's sugar production decreased by 12.98% year - on - year. Brazil's sugar and molasses exports in the first two weeks of July decreased by 21.66% year - on - year [8][9]. - 逻辑分析: Raw sugar is weak due to global supply - demand expectations but may be supported by buying. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow raw sugar passively [10]. - 持仓建议: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate in the short - term; wait and see for spreads; use out - of - the - money ratio spread options [11][12]. Oils and Fats - 外盘情况: CBOT US soybean oil main price changed by - 0.64% to 54.36 cents per pound, and BMD Malaysian palm oil main price changed by 0.92% to 4186 ringgit per ton [14]. - 相关资讯: Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 15 decreased by 6.16% month - on - month. The US June soybean crush was higher than expected, and the soybean oil inventory reached a five - month low. Brazil's July soybean and soybean meal export forecasts increased [15][16]. - 逻辑分析: The upward momentum of oils and fats has weakened, and they may decline in the short - term. Palm oil is in the process of production and inventory accumulation, and domestic soybean oil is in a phased inventory accumulation [17]. - 交易策略: Oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and decline in the short - term; consider partial profit - taking for YP09 spread; wait and see for options [18][19][20]. Corn/Corn Starch - 外盘变化: CBOT corn futures rose, with the December main contract rising 0.2% to 419.0 cents per bushel [23]. - 重要资讯: CBOT corn futures rose slightly, supported by short - covering and bargain - hunting. Brazil's July corn export forecast is 4.6 million tons. The US corn good - to - excellent rate is 74%, and the North Port's purchase price is stable [24]. - 逻辑分析: US corn is oscillating at the bottom with limited downside space. The domestic corn supply is relatively short, and the spot market is relatively weak, while the futures market oscillates at the bottom [25]. - 交易策略: The December CBOT corn is oscillating at the bottom, and consider short - term long positions for the September contract; close the long - corn and short - September - corn spread; consider a high - selling strategy for options with spot positions [26][27][28]. Pigs - 相关资讯: Pig prices are oscillating, with stable prices in different regions. Piglet and sow prices increased slightly. The national average pork price in the wholesale market rose by 0.7% [29]. - 逻辑分析: Pig prices are expected to oscillate as the supply side remains stable [29]. - 策略建议: Wait and see for single - side trading; enter a LH91 positive spread; wait and see for options [30]. Peanuts - 重要资讯: Peanut prices in different regions are reported, and peanut oil factory purchase prices are relatively stable. Peanut and peanut oil inventories decreased. Peanut meal sales are slow [32]. - 逻辑分析: Peanut spot trading is light. New - season peanuts in Henan and Northeast China have declined. The import volume has decreased significantly, and the downstream consumption is weak. The 10 - peanut contract is expected to have a short - term narrow - range shock and a medium - to - long - term decline [33]. - 交易策略: Consider short - selling the 10 - peanut contract at high prices and wait and see for now; wait and see for spreads; sell the pk510 - C - 8800 option [34][35][36]. Eggs - 重要资讯: Egg prices in the main production and sales areas are stable. The national in - production laying - hen inventory increased in June. The egg sales volume in the representative sales areas decreased, and the inventory decreased. The egg - farming profit is negative [38][39][40][41]. - 交易逻辑: Egg prices are stable at the current level and are expected to strengthen seasonally. The September contract is expected to rise after the plum - rain season [41]. - 交易策略: Consider building long positions in the September contract when the plum - rain season is about to end; wait and see for spreads; sell put options [41]. Apples - 重要资讯: The national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory decreased, and the off - season sales speed slowed down. Apple import and export volumes changed. The spot price is stable, and the storage - merchant profit increased [43][44]. - 交易逻辑: The apple market has low inventory and weak demand in the off - season, with little supply - demand contradiction. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [44]. - 交易策略: The AP10 contract is expected to oscillate, and consider a low - buying and high - selling strategy; wait and see for spreads; sell put options [48][45]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - 外盘影响: ICE US cotton rose, with the main contract rising 0.46 (0.68%) to 68.57 cents per pound [46]. - 重要资讯: Brazil's cotton harvest progress is 13.6%, slower than last year. US cotton growth progress is slightly lagging, but the good - to - excellent rate is high, and the production is expected to increase. Brazil's 2024/25 cotton production forecast is 3.938 million tons [47][48][49]. - 交易逻辑: Cotton commercial inventory and import volume are at low levels, but the market expects potential quota issuance. The trade - tariff issue has uncertainties. The upward space of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be limited [50]. - 交易策略: US cotton is expected to oscillate, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate in the short - term with limited upward space; wait and see for spreads; sell put options [51].