华泰证券今日早参-20250716

Macro Insights - The U.S. June CPI shows partial transmission of tariffs, with core CPI rising 0.23% month-on-month, slightly below the expected 0.3% [2] - The second quarter GDP growth in China is steady at 5.2%, down from 5.4% in the first quarter, indicating a slowdown in the second industry and impacts from tariffs on exports and production [3][4] - The nominal GDP growth rate decreased from 4.6% in the first quarter to 3.9% in the second quarter, with trade surplus contribution dropping from 2.2 percentage points to 1.4 percentage points [3] Consumer Sector - In June, retail sales in China reached 4.2 trillion yuan, growing by 4.8% year-on-year, although the growth rate decreased by 1.6 percentage points from May [6] - The consumer market is expected to maintain steady growth in the second half of the year, driven by policies supporting domestic demand and trends in emotional consumption and domestic brands [6] Real Estate Sector - The central urban work conference emphasized urban renewal and market service opportunities, suggesting a focus on companies with urban renewal resources and community service capabilities [7] - Real estate sales and prices are still declining, indicating a bottoming-out phase, with a focus on core cities for recovery and companies with good credit and product quality [7] - Recommendations include A-share developers like Chengdu Investment and Hong Kong developers like China Overseas Development [7] Power and Utilities - In the first half of 2025, coal power approvals increased by 152%, indicating a strong likelihood of exceeding 60GW for the year, supporting the recovery of coal power profitability [8] - Companies like Dongfang Electric and Harbin Electric are recommended due to their potential to benefit from the increasing approvals [8] Construction and Materials - Investment growth in infrastructure, real estate, and manufacturing shows divergence, with infrastructure maintaining high growth while real estate investment declines [9] - The focus is on supply-side capacity clearing and high-growth segments, with recommendations for companies like Huaxin Cement and China Nuclear Engineering [9] Aviation Sector - Huaxia Airlines is reaffirmed as a buy with a target price of 12.55 yuan, expecting a significant CAGR of 71.1% in net profit from 2025 to 2027 due to recovery in flight utilization and favorable subsidy policies [11] Food and Beverage - Guoquan's first half of 2025 shows a net profit increase of 111-146%, driven by supply chain efficiency and effective product strategies [12] - The company is positioned for long-term growth with a focus on expanding its community kitchen model [12] Healthcare Sector - Meili Tianyuan Medical Health expects a revenue increase of at least 27% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, driven by strong performance in beauty and health sectors [16] - The company is focusing on expanding its customer base and enhancing shareholder value through strategic initiatives [16] Chemical Sector - Zhongyan Chemical reported a revenue decline of 5.8% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with a significant drop in net profit, but maintains a "hold" rating due to its integrated operations and resource advantages [17]