GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2025-07-16 07:07Investment Rating - The report rates the tin industry as "Overweight" [4]. Core Viewpoints - The central thesis of the report suggests that the price of tin is expected to rise, driven by tightening supply and improving demand conditions, particularly in the context of artificial intelligence and consumer electronics recovery [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Tin: A Competitive Advantage for China, Price Center Likely to Rise - Tin has a low abundance in the earth's crust, with significant resource advantages in China [7]. - Price analysis indicates that supply constraints and macroeconomic factors are expected to boost tin prices [18][34]. 2. Continuous Supply Disruptions, Incremental Growth May Fall Short of Expectations - Supply disruptions are ongoing, particularly in Myanmar, where production recovery is slow [46]. - The report anticipates that global tin production in 2025 will be around 300,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2% [2]. 3. Demand Growth Driven by AI Trends - The demand for tin solder is expected to increase significantly due to the high growth in artificial intelligence applications and the recovery of consumer electronics [3][31]. - The report forecasts a global refined tin supply gap of 8,300 tons in 2025, highlighting a pronounced supply-demand imbalance [2]. 4. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Tin Industry Co., Ltd., and Xingye Silver Tin, which are positioned well due to their resource advantages and global strategies [2][3].