铁矿石：经济数据偏强短期偏强运行

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The international macro uncertainty weakens and the risk preference rises. In the short term, the domestic macro expectation is enhanced. The market trading focus may gradually shift to the strong reality and strong expectation. With the decrease in foreign ore shipments and the short - term high - level decline in arrivals leading to inventory depletion, and the demand remaining at a relatively high level, the short - term iron ore futures price is expected to oscillate strongly in a range. Later, attention should be paid to whether the hot metal production rebounds beyond expectations and the incremental policies from the Politburo meeting. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in a range, with the i2509 contract price ranging from 760 yuan/ton to 790 yuan/ton and the outer - disk FE08 contract price ranging from 99 to 105 US dollars/ton [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Logic - Yesterday, the market declined slightly, and the incremental expectation of real - estate policies was disappointed. However, the economic data in the first half of the year was good, showing strong economic resilience. The market has gradually accepted the Trump TACO transaction, and the impact of Sino - US tariffs has weakened marginally. With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, the market risk preference has become positive, boosting the valuation of commodities. The domestic monetary and fiscal policies have taken effect in advance, with existing policies providing support and strong expectations for incremental policies. The macro - environment has a positive impact on iron ore prices [3] Supply - Recently, foreign ore shipments have entered a phased decline cycle. Australian mines BHP and FMG entered the maintenance period in early July after the fiscal - year volume rush, while Brazilian shipments remained at a relatively medium - to - high level. The short - term arrivals are expected to decline from the high level, reducing the near - end supply pressure. However, the outer - disk price has rebounded to 100 US dollars/ton. If the price remains high, it may stimulate an increase in non - mainstream ore supply [3] Demand - The domestic daily average hot metal output has declined slightly for two consecutive weeks, with the current daily average hot metal output at 239.81 (a week - on - week decrease of 1.04). But the current profitability rate of steel mills is high, and the blast - furnace profit is considerable. Coupled with the deep losses in the short - process steelmaking and the still - high cost - performance of hot metal, the short - term demand for iron ore is expected to remain resilient, and the slight decline in demand has a weak impact on prices [3] Inventory - Due to the continuous rise in iron ore prices, steel mills have replenished their stocks to some extent, and their imported ore inventory has increased week - on - week. As the arrivals have continued to decline week - on - week, the port inventory has decreased for two consecutive weeks. It is expected that the overall inventory will gradually accumulate slightly in the later period, but the pressure of inventory accumulation is weak [3]