中信期货晨报：商品市场涨跌互现，多晶硅、工业硅延续涨势-20250716

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities, with the policy - driven logic strengthening. There is a higher probability of incremental domestic policies being implemented in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to the impact of breaking the "involution" on the supply - side on assets. Overseas, attention should be paid to the progress of tariff frictions and geopolitical risks. In the long run, the weak - dollar pattern continues. Volatility jumps should be guarded against, and non - dollar assets should be focused on. Strategic allocation to resources such as gold should be maintained [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas Macro: The "reciprocal tariff" rates of the United States on most economies have been announced. Except for Japan and Malaysia, most rates have been lowered, and short - term tariff uncertainty has declined. In May, the US wholesale sales monthly rate was - 0.3% (expected 0.2%, previous value revised from 0.1% to 0%), and the wholesale inventory monthly rate final value was - 0.3% (expected - 0.3%, previous value - 0.3%). In June, the 1 - year inflation expectation of the New York Fed was 3.0% (expected 3.1%, previous value 3.2%). In June, the new non - farm payrolls in the US were better than expected again, with a significant rebound in government employment and a large decline in private - sector employment. The proportion of permanent unemployment increased, and the number of continued unemployment claims also continued to rise. Coupled with the slowdown in hourly wage growth, it indicates concerns in the job market. On July 4, the "Big and Beautiful" bill in the US was implemented, which may have limited long - term boost to the US economy and will increase the US deficit by $3.3 trillion in the next 10 years [6]. - Domestic Macro: In June, China's export volume rebounded slightly to 5.8% year - on - year, CPI rose 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI fell 3.6% year - on - year. The year - on - year growth rate of China's export volume in June increased by 1.0 percentage points compared with May. The recovery of exports to the US was the main boost, and the year - on - year growth rate of exports to the US increased by 18.4 percentage points compared with May, possibly mainly benefiting from the "rush to import" in the US after the relaxation of Sino - US tariffs in May. In addition, exports to ASEAN remained at a high level, and the "rush to re - export" continued to play a role. In June 2025, the national consumer price rose 0.1% year - on - year, with food prices falling 0.3%, non - food prices rising 0.1%, consumer goods prices falling 0.2%, and service prices rising 0.5%. On July 1, the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission proposed to "regulate the low - price and disorderly competition of enterprises in accordance with regulations and promote the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity." As early as July 2024, the Politburo meeting raised the issue of "involution" to the central level. Commodities oriented to domestic demand such as coking coal, rebar, and glass, as well as polysilicon, which has been falling since the beginning of the year, were greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy during the week [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Macro - Overseas stagflation trading has cooled down, and the long - short allocation ideas are differentiated. Domestically, there are moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the fiscal end implements the established policies in the short term. Overseas, the inflation expectation structure has flattened, the economic growth expectation has improved, and stagflation trading has cooled down [7]. 3.2.2 Finance - Stock market sentiment has rebounded, and the bond market maintains a volatile outlook. Stock index futures continue a moderate upward trend but are affected by insufficient incremental funds and are expected to fluctuate. Stock index options should be maintained with caution due to the continuous deterioration of option liquidity and are expected to fluctuate. Bond market sentiment has weakened for treasury bond futures, and they are affected by factors such as unexpected tariffs, unexpected supply, and unexpected monetary easing and are expected to fluctuate [7]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals - Risk appetite has risen, and precious metals are in short - term adjustment. Gold and silver continue to adjust, affected by Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy, and are expected to fluctuate [7]. 3.2.4 Shipping - Sentiment has declined, and attention is paid to the sustainability of the increase in the loading rate in June. For the container shipping route to Europe, attention is paid to the game between the peak - season expectation and the implementation of price increases, affected by tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies, and is expected to fluctuate [7]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - Market sentiment leads, and attention is focused on the realization of positive factors. Steel products have continuous positive news and strong performance on the disk, affected by the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production, and are expected to fluctuate. Iron ore has limited fundamental negatives, and macro sentiment boosts the ore price, affected by overseas mine production and shipment, domestic molten iron production, weather factors, port ore inventory changes, and policy - level dynamics, and is expected to fluctuate. Coke has limited supply - demand contradictions, and the first round of price increases has started, affected by steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment, and is expected to fluctuate. Coking coal has slow supply recovery and slow upstream de - stocking, affected by steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment, and is expected to fluctuate. Silicon iron has little supply - demand contradiction and follows the sector's fluctuations, affected by raw material costs and steel procurement, and is expected to fluctuate. Manganese silicon has limited supply - demand drivers and follows the sector's operation, affected by cost prices and overseas quotes, and is expected to fluctuate. Glass stimulates speculation on the disk, and inventory has slightly decreased, affected by spot production and sales, and is expected to fluctuate. Soda ash still has an oversupply situation, and inventory continues to accumulate, affected by soda ash inventory, and is expected to fluctuate [7]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - The game of reciprocal tariffs vs. the expectation of domestic policy stimulus, non - ferrous metals stop falling and rebound. Copper is affected by the possible early implementation of US tariffs on copper, and its price is under pressure, affected by supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, the Fed being less dovish than expected, domestic demand recovery falling short of expectations, and economic recession, and is expected to fluctuate. Alumina is affected by the rumor that the mining license incident has eased, and the alumina disk has declined, affected by ore production not recovering as expected, electrolytic aluminum production recovering more than expected, and extreme sector trends, and is expected to fluctuate. Aluminum has a large inventory accumulation, and the aluminum price is under pressure to decline, affected by macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand falling short of expectations, and is expected to fluctuate. Zinc has a supply - demand surplus, and the zinc price fluctuates weakly, affected by macro - turning risks and zinc ore supply recovering more than expected, and is expected to fluctuate and decline. Lead has a solid cost support, and the lead price fluctuates, affected by supply - side disruptions and slow battery exports, and is expected to fluctuate. Nickel has increased nickel ore exports from Philippine nickel enterprises, and the short - term nickel price fluctuates widely, affected by unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and supply not being released as expected in some links, and is expected to fluctuate and decline. Stainless steel has a weakening nickel - iron price, and the stainless - steel disk runs weakly, affected by Indonesian policy risks and demand growth exceeding expectations, and is expected to fluctuate. Tin has a resilient supply - demand fundamental, and the tin price fluctuates, affected by the expected resumption of production in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations, and is expected to fluctuate. Industrial silicon is affected by the continuous "anti - involution" sentiment, and the silicon price has rebounded, affected by unexpected supply - side production cuts and unexpected photovoltaic installations, and is expected to fluctuate. Lithium carbonate is affected by the speculation of supply disruptions under the "anti - involution" background, and the lithium carbonate position has increased and the price has risen, affected by demand falling short of expectations, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs, and is expected to fluctuate [7]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemicals - OPEC+ has increased production more than expected, and crude oil will drag down the energy and chemical sector to fluctuate weakly. Crude oil has supply pressure, and attention is paid to geopolitical disturbances, affected by OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitical situations, and is expected to fluctuate. LPG's disk returns to trading the fundamental looseness, and the PG disk may fluctuate weakly, affected by cost - end progress such as crude oil and overseas propane, and is expected to fluctuate and decline. Asphalt futures continue to fall, affected by unexpected demand, and are expected to decline. High - sulfur fuel oil's discount continues to fall, and its weakness is strengthened, affected by crude oil and natural gas prices, and is expected to decline. Low - sulfur fuel oil's low - high sulfur spread continues to rebound, affected by crude oil and natural gas prices, and is expected to decline. Methanol has a decline in domestic operation against an increase in imports, and it fluctuates weakly, affected by macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics, and is expected to fluctuate. Urea has a situation of strong domestic supply and weak demand that is difficult to change, and it depends on exports to drive, affected by market transaction conditions, policy trends, and demand realization, and is expected to fluctuate. Ethylene glycol has a stable basis, and devices are restarting one after another, and it continues to fluctuate, affected by ethylene glycol inventory, and is expected to fluctuate and rise. PX is stable for the time being, and it fluctuates strongly, affected by crude oil fluctuations and downstream device abnormalities, and is expected to fluctuate. PTA has a weakening supply - demand situation and a strong cost - end PX, and it fluctuates, affected by polyester production, and is expected to fluctuate. Short - fiber has a falling basis, rising processing fees, and its absolute value follows the raw material fluctuations, affected by terminal textile and clothing exports, and is expected to fluctuate and rise. Bottle chips start to be overhauled, and the bottle - chip processing fees reach the bottom, affected by the later start - up of bottle chips, and are expected to fluctuate. PP is driven by commodity sentiment and fluctuates, affected by oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations, and is expected to fluctuate. Plastic has limited spot support and fluctuates, affected by oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations, and is expected to fluctuate. Styrene is in a driving vacuum period and fluctuates, affected by oil prices, macro policies, and device dynamics, and is expected to fluctuate and decline. PVC has strong expectations and weak reality and fluctuates, affected by expectations, costs, and supply, and is expected to fluctuate. Caustic soda's spot price continues to rebound, and it is cautiously optimistic, affected by market sentiment, start - up, and demand, and is expected to fluctuate [9]. 3.2.8 Agriculture - There may be La Nina at the end of the year, which boosts the sentiment of going long on protein meal. Oils are affected by the good growth of US soybeans, and market sentiment has weakened, affected by US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data, and are expected to fluctuate. Protein meal, corn, and starch may have a La Nina at the end of the year, which boosts the market sentiment of going long. Protein meal is affected by US soybean area and weather, domestic demand, macro - situations, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars, and is expected to fluctuate and rise. Corn is affected by demand falling short of expectations, macro - situations, and weather, and is expected to fluctuate and decline. Rubber is supported by macro sentiment, and the rubber price runs, affected by producing - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes, and is expected to fluctuate. Synthetic rubber fluctuates on the disk, affected by large fluctuations in crude oil, and is expected to fluctuate. Pulp is dominated by macro factors and rises within the range, affected by macro - economic changes and US dollar - denominated quotes, and is expected to fluctuate. Cotton's price fluctuates narrowly, affected by demand and output, and is expected to fluctuate. Sugar is affected by changes in imports, affected by abnormal weather, and is expected to fluctuate. Logs are in a dilemma and fluctuate, affected by shipment volume and dispatch volume, and are expected to fluctuate and decline [9].