Workflow
股指期货将震荡整理,黄金、白银、螺纹钢、原油期货将偏弱震荡,工业硅、多晶硅、碳酸锂期货将偏强宽幅震荡,集运欧线期货将震荡偏强,镍、豆粕期货将偏强震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-07-16 08:16

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis using tools like the golden ratio line, horizontal line, and moving average, the report predicts the likely trends of various futures contracts on July 16, 2025. Index futures are expected to fluctuate and consolidate; gold, silver, rebar, and crude oil futures are likely to experience weak fluctuations; industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate futures are anticipated to have strong and wide - range fluctuations; container shipping index (European Line) futures are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias; nickel and soybean meal futures are likely to have strong fluctuations [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Outlook - Index Futures: On July 16, 2025, IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. Resistance and support levels are provided for each contract [2][19]. - Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures: The T2509 contract on July 16, 2025, is likely to have a strong - biased fluctuation, with resistance at 109.00 and 109.06 yuan and support at 108.83 and 108.74 yuan [2][38]. - Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures: The TL2509 contract on July 16, 2025, is expected to have a strong - biased fluctuation, with resistance at 121.0 and 121.2 yuan and support at 120.6 and 120.4 yuan [2][42]. - Gold Futures: The AU2510 contract on July 16, 2025, is likely to have a weak fluctuation and may test support at 773.8 and 768.7 yuan/gram, with resistance at 780.4 and 781.8 yuan/gram [2][45]. - Silver Futures: The AG2510 contract on July 16, 2025, is expected to have a weak fluctuation and may test support at 9088 and 9040 yuan/kg, with resistance at 9207 and 9267 yuan/kg [3][49]. - Copper Futures: The CU2508 contract on July 16, 2025, is likely to fluctuate and consolidate, with support at 77700 and 77500 yuan/ton and resistance at 78100 and 78400 yuan/ton [3][52]. - Alumina Futures: The AO2509 contract on July 16, 2025, is expected to have a weak fluctuation and may test support at 3117 and 3100 yuan/ton, with resistance at 3187 and 3208 yuan/ton [3][57]. - Zinc Futures: The ZN2508 contract on July 16, 2025, is likely to have a weak fluctuation and may test support at 22000 and 21860 yuan/ton, with resistance at 22090 and 22130 yuan/ton [3][60]. - Nickel Futures: The NI2508 contract on July 16, 2025, is expected to have a strong fluctuation and may attack resistance at 121500 and 122300 yuan/ton, with support at 119600 and 119400 yuan/ton [3][66]. - Industrial Silicon Futures: The SI2509 contract on July 16, 2025, is likely to have a strong and wide - range fluctuation and may attack resistance at 8900 and 9000 yuan/ton, with support at 8740 and 8620 yuan/ton [3][69]. - Polysilicon Futures: The PS2508 contract on July 16, 2025, is expected to have a strong and wide - range fluctuation and may attack resistance at 43250 and 44600 yuan/ton, with support at 42360 and 41760 yuan/ton [3][71]. - Lithium Carbonate Futures: The LC2509 contract on July 16, 2025, is likely to have a strong and wide - range fluctuation and may accumulate strength to attack resistance at 68400 and 69000 yuan/ton, with support at 66000 and 64200 yuan/ton [4][73]. - Rebar Futures: The RB2510 contract on July 16, 2025, is expected to have a weak fluctuation and may test support at 3100 and 3085 yuan/ton, with resistance at 3121 and 3131 yuan/ton [4][76]. - Hot - Rolled Coil Futures: The HC2510 contract on July 16, 2025, is likely to have a weak fluctuation and may test support at 3238 and 3225 yuan/ton, with resistance at 3259 and 3273 yuan/ton [6][82]. - Iron Ore Futures: The I2509 contract on July 16, 2025, is likely to fluctuate and consolidate and may accumulate strength to attack resistance at 770 and 777 yuan/ton, with support at 760 and 755 yuan/ton [6][83]. - Coking Coal Futures: The JM2509 contract on July 16, 2025, is expected to have a weak fluctuation and may test support at 900 and 890 yuan/ton, with resistance at 920 and 928 yuan/ton [6][92]. - Glass Futures: The FG509 contract on July 16, 2025, is likely to fluctuate and consolidate, with resistance at 1078 and 1084 yuan/ton and support at 1057 and 1048 yuan/ton [6][92]. - Soda Ash Futures: The SA509 contract on July 16, 2025, is likely to fluctuate and consolidate, with resistance at 1231 and 1241 yuan/ton and support at 1200 and 1194 yuan/ton [6][95]. - Crude Oil Futures: The SC2508 contract on July 16, 2025, is expected to have a weak fluctuation and may test support at 514 and 511 yuan/barrel, with resistance at 523 and 528 yuan/barrel [6][97]. - Fuel Oil Futures: The FU2509 contract on July 16, 2025, is likely to have a strong fluctuation and may attack resistance at 2883 and 2911 yuan/ton, with support at 2840 and 2824 yuan/ton [7][103]. - PTA Futures: The TA509 contract on July 16, 2025, is likely to fluctuate and consolidate, with support at 4686 and 4664 yuan/ton and resistance at 4728 and 4760 yuan/ton [7][103]. - PVC Futures: The V2509 contract on July 16, 2025, is expected to have a weak fluctuation and may test support at 4950 and 4925 yuan/ton, with resistance at 4977 and 5000 yuan/ton [7][105]. - Methanol Futures: The MA509 contract on July 16, 2025, is expected to have a weak fluctuation and may test support at 2359 and 2336 yuan/ton, with resistance at 2400 and 2413 yuan/ton [7][107]. - Soybean Meal Futures: The M2509 contract on July 16, 2025, is likely to have a strong fluctuation and may attack resistance at 3001 and 3004 yuan/ton, with support at 2974 and 2960 yuan/ton [7][109]. - Natural Rubber Futures: The RU2509 contract on July 16, 2025, is likely to fluctuate and consolidate, with resistance at 14570 and 14710 yuan/ton and support at 14320 and 14220 yuan/ton [7][111]. - Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures: The EC2510 contract on July 16, 2025, is expected to fluctuate with an upward bias and may attack resistance at 1802 and 1888 points, with support at 1640 and 1600 points [7][113]. 2. Macro - information and Trading Tips - Domestic News: Important articles by General Secretary Xi Jinping were published in Qiushi Journal; Premier Li Qiang held the 10th China - Australia Prime Minister's Annual Meeting; the Central Urban Work Conference was held; China's semi - annual economic report showed GDP growth of 5.3% in H1 2025; housing prices in various cities showed different trends; China adjusted the catalog of prohibited and restricted export technologies; domestic refined oil prices were adjusted; the 3rd China International Supply Chain Expo opened [8][9][10]. - International News: Trump reached an agreement with Indonesia; US CPI in June 2025 rose 2.7% year - on - year; the selection process for the next Fed Chairman started; the EU may postpone trade counter - measures; the EU failed to reach an agreement on the 18th round of sanctions against Russia; NVIDIA will resume selling H20 chips in China [10][11][12]. 3. Commodity Futures - related Information - On July 15, 2025, international precious metal futures generally closed down, with COMEX gold down 0.85% and COMEX silver down 1.95%. International oil prices slightly declined, with US oil down 0.34% and Brent crude down 0.52%. London base metals mostly fell, except for copper which rose 0.40%. OPEC maintained its global crude oil demand growth forecast. China's industrial output of coal, oil, and gas increased in June 2025. The RMB exchange rate and the US dollar index showed certain trends. Investors considered shorting the US dollar the most crowded trade [12][13][14]. 4. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - Index Futures: On July 15, 2025, IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 showed different trends, generally with a slight decline and weakening upward momentum. It is expected that in July 2025, these contracts will fluctuate with an upward bias [15][16][18]. - Treasury Bond Futures: On July 15, 2025, the ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures showed an upward trend. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the money market showed certain changes. It is expected that on July 16, 2025, the ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures will have a strong - biased fluctuation [36][37][42]. - Other Futures: Each futures contract showed different trends on July 15, 2025, and the report provides corresponding price range forecasts for July 16, 2025, and some also for July 2025 [45][49][52].