美国6月核心CPI回升但低于预期，料本月议息会议将继续按兵不动

Inflation Data - The core CPI inflation rate in the U.S. rose from 0.13% in May to 0.23% in June, but remained below the market expectation of 0.3%[1] - Overall CPI increased from 0.08% in May to 0.29% in June, meeting market expectations[1] - Year-on-year, the overall CPI inflation rate increased by 0.3 percentage points to 2.7%, while the core CPI rose by 0.1 percentage points to 2.9%[1] Employment Data - Non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, significantly above the market expectation of 106,000[1] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell from 4.244% in May to 4.112% in June[1] - Labor force participation rate declined to 62.3% in June from 62.4% in May, indicating a weakening labor market[1] Tariff Impact - Core commodity prices saw a month-on-month increase from -0.04% in May to 0.2% in June, suggesting the impact of tariffs is beginning to manifest[2] - The inflation rate for clothing rebounded to 0.43% in June from -0.42% in May, likely due to seasonal changes[2] - The anticipated impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to be more pronounced in the July-August data, with core commodity CPI likely to continue rising[3] Federal Reserve Outlook - The June inflation and employment data, combined with renewed tariff concerns, largely eliminate the possibility of a rate cut in July[6] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the current policy rate and continue its wait-and-see approach, with potential rate cuts anticipated in September[6] - If new tariffs are implemented post-August 1, the Fed may delay its rate cut decisions further, but may need to adopt a more aggressive rate-cutting path next year due to the impact on inflation and economic growth[6]