股指期货策略早餐-20250716

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Financial Futures and Options: The intraday view of stock index futures is a volatile rebound, and the medium - term view is bullish. For treasury bond futures, both the intraday and medium - term views are bullish [1][2]. - Commodity Futures and Options: For aluminum, it is expected to trade at a high level both intraday and in the medium - term. For steel products like rebar and hot - rolled coil, the intraday price is expected to be volatile and strong, and the price is expected to be strong from July to August [4][5]. 3. Summary by Category Financial Futures and Options - Stock Index Futures (IF, IH, IC, IM): - Reference Strategy: Hold long positions in IM2509 [1]. - Core Logic: The marginal slowdown of fundamental repair strengthens policy expectations. The government's strengthened long - cycle assessment of insurance funds is beneficial for the entry of incremental funds. Overseas, the phased settlement of tariff uncertainties has a limited impact on the equity market [1]. - Treasury Bond Futures (TS, TF, T, TL): - Reference Strategy: Hold long positions in T2509 or TL2509 [3]. - Core Logic: During the tax period, the central bank's injection of medium - term liquidity supports the long - end bond market. The weak domestic fundamentals and low inflation strengthen the expectation of monetary easing. After the release of multiple negative news, the bond market maintains a rebound momentum [3]. Commodity Futures and Options - Metal and New Energy Materials (Aluminum): - Reference Strategy: Sell AL2508 - P - 19300 [4]. - Core Logic: Due to supply - side reforms, the increase in aluminum production capacity is limited. The current social inventory is at a five - year low, and the good performance of the automotive market is beneficial for aluminum prices [4]. - Black and Building Materials (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil): - Reference Strategy: Continue to hold long positions in in - the - money call options RB2510 - C - 3000, short positions in out - of - the - money put options RB2510 - P - 2900, and short - term short positions in out - of - the - money call options RB2510 - C - 3300 [5]. - Core Logic: The supply pressure of steel raw materials is expected to ease, which may support the prices of furnace materials and steel production costs. The low inventory of finished steel products and the emergence of multiple positive factors are expected to boost speculative demand [5].